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Outlook 2026

Insight

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Populism, higher rates and AI: How the market cycle is shaping up
  • Podcast

Populism, higher rates and AI: How the market cycle is shaping up

What does the “market balance sheet” for US equities look like? Jason Trennert, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Strategas Research Partners, weighs up the key assets and liabilities for investors today, from powerful earnings growth and AI-driven productivity gains to the headwinds from inflation, higher rates and geopolitics. Jason also explains why themes such as populism, deglobalisation and rising defence spending may keep underlying inflation and long-term interest rates higher than many investors expect – and what that could mean for assets. Plus, there is a look ahead to the coming wave of mega-cap initial public offerings, including SpaceX, and explore how these listings might affect global equity markets and the dominance of the US in world indices.

  • 13 Mai 2026
podcast
Making sense of the market bounce
  • Macro

Making sense of the market bounce

Welcome to the May edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

  • 07 Mai 2026
  • Read time: 10 mins
article
The asymmetries of the Strait of Hormuz blockade
  • Macro

The asymmetries of the Strait of Hormuz blockade

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic for nearly two months. Financial markets have focused mainly on the shortage of energy products, but the crisis is also disrupting the supply of other critical commodities. In this Macro Flash Note, Senior Economist and Strategist GianLuigi Mandruzzato considers the sectors most affected by the crisis in the Persian Gulf and how its impact differs across major economic areas.

  • 30 April 2026
  • Read time: 3 mins
article
The Swiss innovation advantage that most investors miss
  • Macro

The Swiss innovation advantage that most investors miss

For decades, global capital overwhelmingly favoured US assets. However, President Trump’s "America First" policies have triggered a rethink of global capital allocation – accelerating the transition to a less stable, multipolar world that is less reliant on the US dollar. In this edition of Infocus, Senior Economist and Strategist GianLuigi Mandruzzato and Head of Swiss Equities Damian Burkhardt turn the spotlight on Switzerland as the world’s leading innovation powerhouse.

  • 16 April 2026
  • Read time: 5 mins
article
Moz down under part 2: Opportunities in New Zealand
  • Podcast

Moz down under part 2: Opportunities in New Zealand

Continuing his trip down under, Moz Afzal crossed over to Auckland to sit down with Andrew Kelleher, Director at Shaw and Partners New Zealand. Together they discuss the structure and outlook for the New Zealand economy, the behaviour of the Kiwi dollar, and the country’s long-term prospects. Andrew also explores the evolution of New Zealand’s investment services industry, as well as his unconventional path from archaeology into financial markets.

  • 15 April 2026
podcast
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Moz down under part 1: Australia deep dive
  • Podcast

Moz down under part 1: Australia deep dive

On his recent trip to Australia, Moz Afzal sat down with Martin Crabb, CIO of Shaw and Partners, for a deep dive into the Australian economy and markets. They discuss how the latest Middle East tensions and higher energy prices are feeding into Australian inflation and interest rates, what that means for the Reserve Bank’s hiking path, and the implications for the Aussie dollar and bond markets. They also explore the outlook for the ASX and why Australia’s long-term story of population growth, infrastructure demand and a powerful superannuation system still offers compelling opportunities for investors over the next decade.

  • 10 April 2026
podcast
Asymmetric effects of the crisis
  • Macro

Asymmetric effects of the crisis

Welcome to the April edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

  • 08 April 2026
  • Read time: 10 mins
article
March PMIs: scent of stagflation
  • Macro

March PMIs: scent of stagflation

March business surveys show a deterioration in growth and sharp price increases. They also highlight how the US has so far been less affected than other economic areas. In this Macro Flash Note, senior economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato notes how the data points to an increased risk of stagflation.

  • 01 April 2026
  • Read time: 4 mins
article
Inflation fears, rate expectations and chair changes: Takeaways from the Fed meeting
  • Podcast

Inflation fears, rate expectations and chair changes: Takeaways from the Fed meeting

Conflict in the Middle East, volatile energy prices and the state of its independence made for an interesting backdrop for the Federal Reserve meeting, even if it did not deliver any policy changes. Deputy CIO Daniel Murray is joined by EFG’s Chief Economist, Stefan Gerlach, in this short update episode to unpack the Fed’s latest meeting and inflation expectations. In addition, Stefan outlines the common challenges facing major central banks globally as they try to avoid a repeat of the 2021–22 inflation surge while navigating extreme uncertainty.

  • 20 März 2026
podcast
The memory supercycle and what it means for Asia Pacific equities
  • Podcast

The memory supercycle and what it means for Asia Pacific equities

From South Korea’s memory leaders to Taiwan’s artificial intelligence supply chain, we explore what’s really behind recent market moves in the Asia Pacific region. EFG portfolio manager Chris Chan discusses how the AI hardware cycle, shifting geopolitical risks as well as China’s two speed economy are shaping equity markets.

  • 06 März 2026
podcast
Brazil on the rise: what to know in 2026
  • Podcast

Brazil on the rise: what to know in 2026

The Brazilian equity market had a strong 2025 and momentum has so far carried over, but can it continue? Tiago Berriel, chief strategist at BTG Pactual joins us on the podcast to unpack what has driven Latin America’s largest economy and what lies ahead. Real rates, trade relations, election considerations and why Tiago is more positive on the economy than the Brazilian soccer team come in to focus.

  • 18 Februar 2026
podcast
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  • +44 (0)20 7491 9111
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