Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Insight

Causes and consequences of the OPEC+ pivot

The decision on 3 May by eight OPEC+ countries to further boost oil supply indicates a shift in the cartel’s strategy towards defending its market share. In this edition of InFocus, Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the rationale for the OPEC+ decision and the implications for energy markets and the economy.

04 Juni 2025

Macro

UK and EU start new post-Brexit stage

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer recently announced the agreement of a new deal. This represents potentially the most significant development in relations between the UK and the European Union (EU) since Brexit. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Joaquin Thul reviews the key aspects of the deal and what it holds for the future.

23 Mai 2025
Read time: 3 mins

Macro

US and China climb down tariff ladder, outlook remains uncertain

Trade talks in Geneva resulted in a temporary reduction of 115 percentage points in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Sam Jochim discusses the outlook as the US and China take the first steps down from the trade war ladder they had been climbing.

20 Mai 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Trump's and Starmer's Victory Moment

On 8 May a trade deal was announced by US President Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer. Details of this agreement are still being finalised and final approval will be needed by US Congress and UK Parliament. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Joaquin Thul discusses the content of this deal and its short-term implications for the US and UK economies.

19 Mai 2025
Read time: 2 mins

A changing world

Podcast - Reimagining business through AI

José Pedro Almeida, Executive in Residence at INSEAD, explains how he helps governments, investors and businesses lead AI and digital transformations, with a particular focus on healthcare. From how to get CEO buy-in to the dos (and don’ts) of measuring success, Jose explains the human role in a GenAI enabled business.

16 Mai 2025

Macro

Did imports lower US real GDP?

Did imports lower US real GDP in the first quarter of 2025? Some commentators have pointed to a surge in demand for foreign goods as the reason for the reported contraction. In this note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach explains why that interpretation misreads the mechanics of GDP accounting.

08 Mai 2025
Read time: 3 mins

Mid-Year Outlook 2026