Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Macro

Understanding the Impact of Tariffs on Global Markets

The market gyrations prompted by President Trump’s tariff announcements have been nothing short of extraordinary, with the S&P 500 seeing intraday fluctuations equivalent to the entire range of moves seen between November last year and February. With the sharp volatility and heightened uncertainty, Moz Afzal, EFG’s Chief Investment Officer and Daniel Murray, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, provide an assessment of the potential tariff scenarios and the market implications.

11 April 2025
Read time: 7 mins

A changing world

Podcast - The state of sustainable investing: crisis or opportunity?

The Trump administration has an infamously dim view on sustainability, but what does this really mean for the landscape of sustainable investing? Melanie Beyeler, Senior Portfolio Manager at New Capital, talks to Moz about why it’s not necessarily all bad news for the segment, and what sustainable investing opportunities may arise out of the new global dynamic.

10 April 2025

Macro

Latin American Series - Central Bank Update

Five years after the onset of the Covid pandemic, the outlook for monetary policy in Latin America is characterized by a recent divergence in policy across different countries. In contrast to the global policy coordination after the Covid pandemic, the current setting is one of fragmented policy making reflecting differences in domestic priorities. This has the potential to affect prices and activity.

09 April 2025
Read time: 4 mins

Macro

The Federal Reserve and Liberation Day

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Bank Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach uses the Taylor Rule to examine how the Federal Reserve might respond to the economic consequences of the Trump administration’s recently announced tariffs. The analysis suggests the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points only if there is a significant deterioration in economic activity, which financial markets appear to be pricing in.

07 April 2025
Read time: 5 mins

Insight

InFocus - When protectionism backfired: Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1932

With the Trump administration implementing wide ranging tariffs on US trading partners, it is useful to revisit the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which was passed in 1930 and which was followed by a collapse in US trade and economic activity. In this issue of InFocus, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach reviews the background of the Act and its consequences.

04 April 2025

Macro

Tariffs: worse than expected, uncertain look

President Trump’s latest tariff announcement has raised the risk of a global recession and could stoke a drawn-out phase of deglobalisation. In this note, Deputy CIO Daniel Murray looks at the implications of the tariffs and the outlook.

03 April 2025

Outlook 2026