Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

MFN - Financial variables are more uncertain than you think

Financial variables are more uncertain than many investors recognise. That message is worth recalling at the present juncture where both short-term and long-term interest rates are seen as close to their peaks. While many commentators may expect both to decline slowly, history suggests that they may move by large amounts in either direction in the coming months.

18 Oktober 2023

Insight Q4 2023 - Shifting sands

Insight - Although Covid concerns will feature in the first part of the year, we are generally optimistic about the outlook for global economic growth in 2022. With inflation rates set to fall back, the economic backdrop remains generally benign.

16 Oktober 2023

MFN - What to expect from the BoJ

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it would leave policy unchanged at its meeting on 22 September. However, the recently released minutes suggest a policy shift may be on the way.

11 Oktober 2023

Infocus - Is equity market volatility set to increase?

Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), volatility in US equity markets declined, encouraged lower by falling interest rates and the Fed’s quantitative easing program. With the Fed having raised rates by a cumulative 525 basis points since March 2022 and now shrinking its balance sheet, could equity market volatility rise? In this edition of Infocus, Economist Sam Jochim investigates.

02 Oktober 2023

Infocus - Thinking about yields and yield curves

Many investors have been caught off-guard by the recent rise in bond yields. From early May to the time of writing (26 September), the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has increased by around 120bps of which a third of the move occurred in September alone. This has translated into a capital loss of about 8% since early May and over 3% in September. With inflation coming down and the Fed signalling that it is close to the end of its hiking cycle, such moves are perhaps surprising.

29 September 2023

MFN - BoE surprises markets by leaving rates on hold

The BoE surprised markets last week after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, with a narrow majority of 5 votes to 4, to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25%. Economist Joaquin Thul looks at the reasons behind the BoE’s decision and the outlook for interest rates.

26 September 2023

Mid-Year Outlook 2026