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Outlook 2026

Insight

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Fed rate cut reaction with GianLuigi Mandruzzato and Stefan Gerlach
  • Podcast

Fed rate cut reaction with GianLuigi Mandruzzato and Stefan Gerlach

In this special short episode of Beyond the Benchmark, EFG's GianLuigi Mandruzzato and Stefan Gerlach give their immediate reaction to the Federal Reserve's 17 September decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While a true picture of market reaction was not yet evident at the time of recording, Stefan highlights some of the learnings to be gleaned from the decision about how the FOMC is currently operating and what their longer term thinking is.

  • 18 September 2025
podcast
ECB to keep rates unchanged for some time
  • Macro

ECB to keep rates unchanged for some time

On 11 September, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged and signalled that it will likely keep them at the current level for some time. In the ECB’s assessment, downside risks to growth and inflation have diminished, reducing the scope for a more accommodative policy. In this Macro Flash Note, Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the factors that could lead the ECB to a different conclusion.

  • 12 September 2025
  • Read time: 2 mins
article
The US consumer in a tariff-laden economy with Chelsea Wiater
  • Podcast

The US consumer in a tariff-laden economy with Chelsea Wiater

The US consumer remains a crucial pillar of the economy, but what happens when they face the combined pressures of high interest rates and trade tariffs? In this episode, Chelsea Wiater, Senior Portfolio Manager for New Capital’s US growth equity strategies, unpacks the evolving habits of American consumers. She explores the striking divergence between weak consumer sentiment and resilient spending, and highlights the industries finding success in this challenging environment.The US consumer remains a crucial pillar of the economy, but what happens when they face the combined pressures of high interest rates and trade tariffs? In this episode, Chelsea Wiater, Senior Portfolio Manager for New Capital’s US growth equity strategies, unpacks the evolving habits of American consumers. She explores the striking divergence between weak consumer sentiment and resilient spending, and highlights the industries finding success in this challenging environment.

  • 11 September 2025
podcast
Strategic adjustments after a strong summer for equities
  • Macro

Strategic adjustments after a strong summer for equities

Welcome to the September edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

  • 10 September 2025
  • Read time: 10 mins
article
Entering uncharted demographic territory with James Pomeroy
  • Podcast

Entering uncharted demographic territory with James Pomeroy

Collapsing birth rates are taking the world into uncharted territory, according to research done by James Pomeroy and HSBC. Shrinking populations from China to Europe will put unprecedented pressure on fiscal policy, but bright spots for investors still remain in the developing world.

  • 03 September 2025
podcast
RBA and RBNZ: Inflation Targeting in Action
  • Macro

RBA and RBNZ: Inflation Targeting in Action

New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting in 1990 and Australia soon followed. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach reviews the monetary policy frameworks in both countries and the outlook for interest rates.

  • 02 September 2025
  • Read time: 3 mins
article
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Park House
116 Park Street
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W1K 6AP

  • +44 (0)20 7491 9111
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Park House
116 Park Street
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W1K 6AP

  • +44 (0)20 7491 9111
  • [email protected]
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