The JOLTS data shows no impact yet of US Tariffs

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on 3 June, providing a snapshot of labour market conditions at the end of April. This release was particularly anticipated because it covers the period just after the massive tariff increases announced by the Trump administration on 2 April, dubbed “Liberation Day.” Seven days later, these tariffs were put on hold for 90 days, with a lower interim rate imposed during this period.

Nonetheless, uncertainty remains elevated. Many observers were eager to see whether the trade restrictions, or the uncertainty caused by this abrupt policy shift, had begun to affect the labour market.

The short answer, for now, appears to be no. The labour market is holding up well, with no sign in the April data that the tariff shock has weakened hiring activity or labour demand.

Over the past year, job openings have stabilised in the 7–8m range, suggesting a labour market that has cooled from its post-pandemic peak but is still fundamentally strong. April’s data reinforced this view, with job openings rising to 7.4m, up from 7.2m in March and above market expectations.

Other key indicators in the report showed little change. Hires stood at 5.6m, and total separations (the number of people leaving their jobs for any reason) were 5.3m. Within separations, quits held steady at 3m, and layoffs and discharges remained near 1.8m.

As the graph shows, JOLTS is a volatile series, with job openings sometimes swinging by hundreds of thousands from month to month. As such, it is more useful to focus on the broader trend than on individual data points. The graph below shows that the six-month moving averages of job openings, hires and separations have remained stable since September 2024.

The quits rate, which captures voluntary resignations as a share of total employment, was steady at 2.0% — exactly its long-run average since 2000 — and well below the peak of 3.0% during the COVID-19 pandemic. This measure is often seen as a barometer of worker confidence and a leading indicator of wage pressure.

The job openings-to-unemployed ratio remained essentially unchanged just above 1 and very close to its mean since 2000 (0.97).

Overall, the April JOLTS data point to a broadly stable and resilient labour market. There is no evidence that the tariff announcements, or uncertainty caused by them, have led to weaker hiring or greater layoffs. That may change, of course, as the full impact of trade restrictions ripples through global supply chains and consumer sentiment.

The Fed is likely to interpret these data as supportive of its wait-and-see approach. With inflation subdued and the labour market broadly stable, the Fed has little reason to adjust policy immediately. The bigger question is how long this stability can be maintained, given the uncertainty surrounding trade policy.

Important Information

The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks involving, but not limited to, possible loss of all or part of the principal invested.

This document does not constitute and shall not be construed as a prospectus, advertisement, public offering or placement of, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or solicit, any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. It is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. This document is for general information only and is not intended as investment advice or any other specific recommendation as to any particular course of action or inaction. The information in this document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. You should seek your own professional advice suitable to your particular circumstances prior to making any investment or if you are in doubt as to the information in this document.

Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no member of the EFG group represents or warrants its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. This document may contain personal opinions which do not necessarily reflect the position of any member of the EFG group. To the fullest extent permissible by law, no member of the EFG group shall be responsible for the consequences of any errors or omissions herein, or reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein, and each member of the EFG group expressly disclaims any liability, including (without limitation) liability for incidental or consequential damages, arising from the same or resulting from any action or inaction on the part of the recipient in reliance on this document.
The availability of this document in any jurisdiction or country may be contrary to local law or regulation and persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of and observe any restrictions. This document may not be reproduced, disclosed or distributed (in whole or in part) to any other person without prior written permission from an authorised member of the EFG group.

This document has been produced by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for use by the EFG group and the worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the EFG group. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, registered no. 7389746. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111.