Date:

Marketing Communication

Executive Summary

Key events in market

The MSCI AC World Index returned +0.1% in July, taking its year-to-date return to 11.3%. Despite the muted headline returns, there was significant volatility beneath the surface. Energy (+12% in July) was the best performer, while IT (-6%) lagged as artificial intelligence (AI) momentum stocks declined sharply.

Key performance & positioning updates

The Fund returned +0.4% in July, outperforming the benchmark by 36 basis points (bps). Sector allocation contributed 27bps to relative performance, primarily due to overweight allocations in Energy and Financials. Further details on the Fund’s outlook and positioning are provided below.

Market Update

July saw increased market volatility, reflecting the renewed rise in tensions in the Middle East. The US and Iran resumed exchanging military strikes and naval traffic in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed again, boosting energy prices. Furthermore, the Houthis, the pro-Iranian Yemeni rebels, threatened to block the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb south of the Red Sea, a scenario that would have far worse consequences for international trade than the closure of Hormuz.

Overall, the MSCI ACWI index was essentially unchanged during the month, maintaining double-digit gains since the start of the year. Emerging markets corrected, weighed down by profit-taking on AI-related stocks - the Korean market being a case in point. It should be noted, however, that quarterly earnings reports significantly exceeded expectations, a factor that will continue to support global equity markets.

The rebound in inflation concerns and the deliberate lack of guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh contributed to a significant increase in government bond yields in developed markets. The increase in the risk premium penalised longer maturities, leading the yield curve to steepen. Corporate bond spreads also widened from historically low levels, adding to the fixed income market woes.

In currency markets, the yen recovered following the consecutive interventions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve. The Japanese currency's recovery also dragged other major currencies, resulting in the trade-weighted exchange rate of the US dollar losing about 1% over the month. Finally, the price of gold stabilised just above USD 4,000 per ounce.

Looking at the economic outlook, growth remains strong in developed countries, with Europe gaining momentum. The Chinese economy, however, continues to lose steam, but the authorities do not appear ready to launch new stimulus plans. Pressures on inflation are currently primarily due to energy prices, but the longer they remain high, the greater the risk of second-round effects on the prices of other goods and services. Markets are already pricing in central banks adopting somewhat more restrictive policies in the coming months.

Fund Performance & Positioning

The portfolio was up +0.4% in July and outperformed the benchmark by 36 basis points.

Key stocks that significantly contributed to relative performance in July included:
- Diamondback Energy (+15% return). West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose +21% in July, as geopolitical uncertainty increased.
- Mastercard (+12% return). Mastercard reported strong quarterly results, with revenue up +12% year-on-year. The stock also benefited from the AI momentum unwind, having underperformed year-to-date.
- Bank of America (+9% return). Bank of America reported solid quarterly results. Net interest income rose +9% year-on-year and has the potential to benefit in a higher-rate environment. Investment banking fees also exceeded expectations.

Key stocks that significantly detracted from relative performance in July included:
- Applied Materials (-30% return). AI beneficiaries broadly underperformed in July. This is discussed further in the section below.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (-15% return). AI beneficiaries underperformed in July.
- Samsung Electronics (-22% return). AI beneficiaries underperformed in July.

Outlook

While the MSCI AC World Index was little changed in July, there was significant volatility beneath the surface. For example, South Korea was the world’s sixth-largest equity market by market capitalisation at the end of June. On 31 July, the KOSPI Index rose 19%, but still ended the month down 15%. A sharp decline in AI beneficiary stocks drove much of this volatility. Potential explanations included: profit-taking after the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose +88% in Q2; concerns about Chinese competition across both models and equipment; questions over the sustainability of capital expenditure growth; and excessive leverage among hedge funds and retail investors. Moreover, as geopolitical uncertainty increased in July, AI – which had behaved as a relative safe haven in Q2 – might have been expected to outperform.

The key question, therefore, is: “Is the AI trade over?” With a torrent of daily news, it is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. Our true north is simple: does AI spending continues to rise? If it does, many AI beneficiaries do not appear expensive on headline valuation multiples. Do Big Tech companies have both the ability and the willingness to spend? At least for the next few years, we think they have ample financial capacity. As for willingness, as long as AI continues to advance technologically and a credible path towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remains, Big Tech will need to continue investing to mitigate long-term existential risks.

As we look for signposts, DeepSeek CEO recently outlined a roadmap towards AGI: 1) Language Model (exemplified by ChatGPT in November 2022); 2) Chain-of-Thoughts reasoning (OpenAI o1 in September 2024); 3) Agents (Claude Cowork in January 2026); 4) Continuous Learning; 5) Self Improvement; and 6) AGI. The progression is unlikely to be linear, and the stages might overlap. Nonetheless, there is no compelling reason to believe AI development will stop at stage three.

Current positioning and recent trades:
We remain positive on equities, supported by strong earnings growth. We are overweight Financials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary.

Within AI, last month we discussed the importance of maintaining exposure across the AI value chain. In early July, we took profits in selected AI beneficiaries, including Applied Materials, Infineon and BESI. We used the proceeds to add exposure to Central Processing Units (CPUs) through AMD and memory through Samsung. We also initiated a new position in ASML, following its underperformance relative to US peers.

Disclaimer

MARKETING COMMUNICATION

For professional clients, qualified investors and accredited investors only. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, your capital is at risk. Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

All sources: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited ("EFGAM"), Factset, Bloomberg, Morningstar as at end of the month.  Any other sources as applicable. 

This document has been produced by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for use by the EFG International  ("EFG Group" or "EFG") worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the EFG Group. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, registered no. 7389736. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111. 

This document has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information contained herein constitutes a marketing communication and should not be construed as financial research or analysis, an offer, a public offer, an investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to financial instruments and/or to the provision of a financial service. It is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. The content of this document is intended only for persons who understand and are capable of assuming all risks involved. Further, this document is not intended to provide any financial, legal, accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in this regard. The information in this document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. You should seek your own professional advice (including tax advice) suitable to your particular circumstances prior to making any investment or if you are in doubt as to the information in this document. 

Performance results shown are net of applicable fees and expenses. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks, involving but not limited to, currency exchange and market risks, fluctuations in value, liquidity risk and, where applicable, possible loss of principal invested. Some funds may have high volatility owing to portfolio composition or the portfolio management techniques utilised or be subject to various other risk factors. Such risks are set out in the Prospectus and KIID/KID.

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For Professional, Institutional and Wholesale Investors Only. This document has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, a private limited company with registered number 7389736 and with its registered office address at Park House, Park Street, London W1K 6AP (telephone number +44 (0)20 7491 9111). EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is regulated and authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority No. 536771. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA Registration No. 536771) under the laws of the United Kingdom which differ from Australian laws.  This document is personnal and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, to any other person.
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Offering Documents 

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