Date:

Marketing Communication

Executive Summary

Key events in market

Equity markets rallied sharply last month, supported by a fragile ceasefire. The MSCI AC World Index was up 10.2% in April, and is now up 6.8% year-to-date. The April rally was led by stocks that are viewed as AI beneficiaries. The Semiconductors sub-sector accounts for 16% of the MSCI AC World Index, but contributed 34% of the index’s April return. The PHLX Semiconductor Index posted a record 18-day streak of gains, propelling the index to its second-best monthly performance on record.

Key performance & positioning updates

The portfolio was up 9.4% in April, however underperformed the benchmark by 77 basis points (bps). The largest contributors to performance were our semiconductor holdings (Infineon, BE Semi, Samsung, TSMC, Applied Materials and Shin-Etsu), followed by cyclical Industrials (United Rentals and Sandvik), and banks (ING, Sumitomo and HSBC). The largest detractors to performance were defensive stocks (including Johnson & Johnson, McKesson and BAE Systems), which lagged in a strong market rally.

Market Update

Global equity markets rebounded strongly in April, as the concern about the impact of the war in the Persian Gulf on the economy receded. This was due to indirect talks between the US and Iran, which started thanks to the mediation of Pakistan.

The MSCI All Countries World Index rose 10.2%, bringing its year-to-date gains to 6.8%. Performance was led by the US (S&P 500 +10.5%) and emerging Asia (+13.8%), while other major equity markets underperformed despite posting strong gains for the month.

In the fixed income market, government bond yields rose slightly, returning close to recent highs, reflecting concerns about rising inflation and more hawkish comments from central banks. However, investors' increased risk appetite favoured a decline in corporate bond spreads.

In the currency market, the US dollar lost almost 2% for the month but remains within the trading range it has held since June last year. Finally, the price of oil and other commodities, including precious and industrial metals, rose as a result of the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The apparent contradiction between commodity price trends and growing concerns about potential shortages of strategic inputs if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial shipping, versus the all-time highs reached by stock markets can be explained by examining corporate earnings. The earnings season for the first quarter of 2026 and the upward revision of analysts' estimates for the full year 2026, once again driven by the technology sector, helps to make sense of the markets' sudden recovery after the March sell-off.

Furthermore, stock markets have also found support in the progress toward the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh is regarded as being more inclined to reduce interest rates based on the anticipated disinflationary effect of the spread of artificial intelligence, as he explained during the Senate Banking Committee hearing. Moreover, Warsh favours reducing the size of the Fed's balance sheet and simplifying its composition, factors that help explain the rise in Treasury yields.

Fund Performance & Positioning

The portfolio was up 9.4% in April, however underperformed the benchmark by 77 basis points (bps). From a sector perspective, Information Technology (IT) detracted 40bps from relative performance. The relative underperformance from IT was due to the Fund not owning several stocks that rallied strongly in April, such as Intel (+114%) and AMD (+74%). Within IT, the Fund is overweight Semiconductors and underweight both Software and IT Services, which face sustained artificial intelligence (AI) disruption concerns. In aggregate, this leaves the Fund underweight IT compared to the benchmark.

Key stocks that significantly contributed to relative performance in April included Infineon Technologies (+53% in April), which produces power semiconductors used across a broad range of electrical applications. Quarterly results from its peers, including Texas Instruments and STMicro, indicated demand acceleration related to power semiconductors for AI datacenters. Additionally, there is increasing optimism around a cyclical recovery across Industrial and Automotive end markets. United Rentals (+32% in April) reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results. Revenue rose +9% year-on-year and the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin reached 44%, both exceeding market expectations. Sentiment towards the stock was weak into earnings, due to concerns over the macroeconomy and competition within industrial equipment rental. Moreover, BE Semiconductors (+41% in April) also reported strong earnings, with quarterly revenue increasing +28% year-on-year. The results showed signs of an acceleration in Hybrid Bonding adoption in both Logic and Memory applications where BESI retains a technological lead over the competition.

Key stocks that significantly detracted relative performance in April were defensive stocks that typically underperform in a strong market rallies: Johnson & Johnson (-6% in April), McKesson (-6% in April) and BAE Systems (-3% in April).

Outlook

The two key current topics are the Iran conflict and developments in artificial intelligence. Regarding Iran, there are two plausible but highly uncertain scenarios with materially different implications for equity markets. If a peace agreement is reached in the near term, markets are likely to look through any temporary increase in commodity prices, as macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings remained robust in April. Conversely, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, seaborne oil shipments and global inventories would likely be significantly depleted, creating risks of substantially higher commodity prices and, more importantly, physical supply shortages.

On artificial intelligence, the central issue is how to reconcile a strong fundamental growth outlook with elevated equity market valuations. AI investment growth appears durable, as large technology companies have both the willingness, given the perceived existential and competitive risks, and the ability, supported by accelerating revenues and strong balance sheets, to continue increasing AI-related spending. However, the recent pace of share price appreciation is difficult to sustain, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rising by 38% in April alone, raising questions about how much future growth is already reflected in current valuations.

The Fund currently takes an overall neutral stance. In times of high uncertainty, we believe it is prudent to avoid making large bottom-up portfolio changes based on any one probable geopolitical outcome. We trimmed Europe and Asia and increased the US, whose economy is more insulated from potential energy shortages and whose equity market includes many of the large potential AI beneficiaries. Within the US, we increased our positions in Cloud Service Providers, as their Cloud revenue accelerated and the value of their compute infrastructure became more evident.

Disclaimer

MARKETING COMMUNICATION

For professional clients, qualified investors and accredited investors only. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, your capital is at risk. Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

All sources: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited ("EFGAM"), Factset, Bloomberg, Morningstar as at end of the month.  Any other sources as applicable. 

This document has been produced by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for use by the EFG International  ("EFG Group" or "EFG") worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the EFG Group. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, registered no. 7389736. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111. 

This document has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information contained herein constitutes a marketing communication and should not be construed as financial research or analysis, an offer, a public offer, an investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to financial instruments and/or to the provision of a financial service. It is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. The content of this document is intended only for persons who understand and are capable of assuming all risks involved. Further, this document is not intended to provide any financial, legal, accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in this regard. The information in this document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. You should seek your own professional advice (including tax advice) suitable to your particular circumstances prior to making any investment or if you are in doubt as to the information in this document. 

Performance results shown are net of applicable fees and expenses. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks, involving but not limited to, currency exchange and market risks, fluctuations in value, liquidity risk and, where applicable, possible loss of principal invested. Some funds may have high volatility owing to portfolio composition or the portfolio management techniques utilised or be subject to various other risk factors. Such risks are set out in the Prospectus and KIID/KID.

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The information provided in this document is not the result of financial research conducted by EFGAM’s research department. Therefore, it does not constitute investment or independent research as defined in EU regulation (such as “MIFID II” or “MIFIR”) nor under the Swiss “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” issued by the Swiss Banking Association or any other equivalent local rules. Investors should carefully read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and review such documents prior to taking any investment decisions.  This information can be obtained on request and free of charge from your client relationship officer.

Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited is the appointed Management Company and is regulated by the CBI. The Manager is a private limited company incorporated in Ireland under the company registration number C123529 with its registered office at 4th Floor, 35 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin, D04 A4E0, Ireland.
 
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Comparisons to indexes or benchmarks in this material are being provided for illustrative purposes only and have limitations because indexes and benchmarks have material characteristics that may differ from the particular investment strategies that are being pursued by EFG and securities in which it invests.

The information and views expressed herein at the time of writing are subject to change at any time without notice and there is no obligation to update or remove outdated information.
 
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For Professional, Institutional and Wholesale Investors Only. This document has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, a private limited company with registered number 7389736 and with its registered office address at Park House, Park Street, London W1K 6AP (telephone number +44 (0)20 7491 9111). EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is regulated and authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority No. 536771. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA Registration No. 536771) under the laws of the United Kingdom which differ from Australian laws.  This document is personnal and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, to any other person.
 ASIC Class Order CO 03/1099 EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited notifies you that it is relying on the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) Class Order CO 03/1099 (Class Order) exemption (as extended in operation by ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional Instrument 2016/396) for UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulated firms which exempts it from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Corporations Act) in respect of the financial services we provide to you. 

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IMPORTANT NOTE: FOR PUBLICATIONS WITH CONTENT RELATED TO FUNDS

Offering Documents 

Neither this document nor any document under which Interests in the New Capital UCITS Fund plc (the “Fund”) are offered is a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other formal disclosure document under the Corporations Act.  Interests in the Fund may not be offered, issued, sold or distributed in Australia other than by way of or pursuant to an offer or invitation that does not need disclosure to investors either under Part 7.9 or Part 6D.2 of the Corporations Act, whether by reason of the investor being a wholesale client (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act and applicable regulations) or otherwise. Nothing in this document nor any document under which interests in the Fund are offered constitutes an offer of interests in a financial product or financial product advice to a 'retail client' (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act and applicable regulations).

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