Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

The Cost of Waiting

A farmer doesn’t wait for the perfect day to harvest every last grain. Once the crop is ripe, the cost of waiting can outweigh the benefit. Fixed income investors face a similar choice today. After years of exceptionally low yields, bonds are once again offering meaningful income. Yields may rise further, but today’s starting point provides a much stronger foundation for returns than in the low-rate era. The objective is not to predict the exact peak in rates, but to start locking in income whilst retaining flexibility to add at more attractive levels.

12 octobre 2026
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Quantifying hyperscalers’ AI investment

Artificial intelligence (AI) has fast become a topic that is significant not only in terms of technological progress but also for markets and the macroeconomy. One important dimension relates to the rapid buildout of data centres that has seen a substantial increase in capital expenditures (capex) by hyperscalers in the US. In this edition of InFocus, Economist Sam Jochim investigates how this capex boom has contributed to overall growth. In performing the analysis, it is essential to distinguish between what would have been expected in normal circumstances based on historical behaviour and what truly represents additional spending.

28 septembre 2026
Read time: 5 mins

Macro

Assessing downside risks: scenarios, triggers and thresholds

In the three years to 23 September 2026, MSCI World returned over 80%, equivalent to more than 20% per annum. Furthermore, some sectors - such as technology and communication services – experienced outsized returns over this period, indicating a degree of market concentration. Against a background of rising interest rates, heightened geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices, it is legitimate to ask for how much longer markets can remain buoyant.

25 septembre 2026
Read time: 5 mins

Podcast

The new macro order: gold, deglobalisation and EM opportunities

As the global economic order becomes increasingly fragmented, investors are navigating a landscape shaped by deglobalisation and shifting geopolitical alignments. In this episode, Moz Afzal is joined by Thomas Roderick, Portfolio Manager at Trium Capital to explore how these structural forces are reshaping global markets. Their conversation explores the growing economic divide between the US and China and why Thomas sees gold as a key expression of this longer-term shift. They also look beyond traditional emerging market exposures to consider where a changing political and economic landscape could be creating new opportunities.

24 septembre 2026

Podcast

The midterm playbook: Congress, data centres and the cost-of-living vote

As the US midterm elections come into view, Moz Afzal is joined by Clayton Allen, Practice Head for the United States at Eurasia Group, to unpack what really matters to Trump and voters. Clayton breaks down why Trump is likely to shrug off a Democratic House and pivot even further toward foreign policy. They also dig into the political backlash facing data centres, the state of US relations with China, Russia and Iran, and what Trump's obsession with legacy could mean for markets and policy.