Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Macro

Insight Q3 2024 - Debt rising, inflation receding

The financial markets’ preoccupation with central bank policy remains. But four aspects of the new reality of the global economy are worthy of closer attention.

18 juillet 2024
Read time: 10 mins

Inflation relief – finally

The recent burst of inflation in the US and in many other countries has led investors to wonder whether the entire inflation environment has changed.

15 juillet 2024

Large Public Debts and Confidence Crises

Public debt has surged in many countries. That is worrisome. The IMF Fiscal Monitor report published in April 2024 makes for dire reading. In 2023, the public debt-to-GDP ratio in advanced economies was 111%. In emerging economies, it was 68%. In both cases, further increases are projected before the end of the decade. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief economist Stefan Gerlach argues that investors in public debt need to keep the risks in mind.

15 juillet 2024

MFN - EFGAM’s Hawkishness Indicator: hawks remain airborne

The Fed, ECB and BoE provide a window into their thinking though the release of meeting minutes. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Sam Jochim provides an update on the perceived hawkishness of each central bank with the help of EFGAM’s Hawkishness Indicator.

08 juillet 2024

MFN - All change in the UK: massive Labour gains despite limited vote share

High and persistent services inflation in the US has prevented overall inflation from returning to the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. In response, the Fed has postponed interest rate cuts. To assess the prospects for services inflation, Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach looks at the behaviour of consumption spending on services.

05 juillet 2024

Labour victory – What can the UK economy and markets expect?

Labour will be inheriting one of the weakest government positions from a financial perspective in decades – high debt, high tax burden, limited fiscal headroom, and low growth. On top of this there is the world’s deglobalisation trend, the green transition, and increasing protectionism to contend with. Labour has moved notably more centrist in its standing under Starmer, who has spent the last few months purging the party of its more radical left members.

05 juillet 2024

Mid-Year Outlook 2026