Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Infocus - Thinking about yields and yield curves

Many investors have been caught off-guard by the recent rise in bond yields. From early May to the time of writing (26 September), the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has increased by around 120bps of which a third of the move occurred in September alone. This has translated into a capital loss of about 8% since early May and over 3% in September. With inflation coming down and the Fed signalling that it is close to the end of its hiking cycle, such moves are perhaps surprising.

29 septembre 2023

MFN - BoE surprises markets by leaving rates on hold

The BoE surprised markets last week after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, with a narrow majority of 5 votes to 4, to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25%. Economist Joaquin Thul looks at the reasons behind the BoE’s decision and the outlook for interest rates.

26 septembre 2023

MFN - FOMC September Meeting

Yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting saw the Federal Reserve stay on hold, as had been widely anticipated. However, the hawkish tone in the post-FOMC meeting press conference was a surprise, as were changes to the Fed’s outlook over the next few years. In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray reviews the meeting and the associated projection materials.

21 septembre 2023

Why diversification is essential in high yield

The recent burst of inflation in the US and in many other countries has led investors to wonder whether the entire inflation environment has changed.

18 septembre 2023

MFN - The ECB's dilemma

The outcome of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision is unusually uncertain. The Governing Council will debate how much weight to put on backward and forward-looking data. GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the factors that could shift the balance in favour of a new rate increase or a pause.

12 septembre 2023

Infocus - India: A light in a dimming global economy

Strong domestic consumption and investment is driving GDP growth in India and the outlook appears positive, despite slowing global growth. In this edition of Infocus, Sam Jochim and Amanda Cotti look at India’s economy, its structural challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead.

07 septembre 2023

Outlook 2026