Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Macro

May CPI undershoots, but Fed caution remains

Widespread talk about the inflationary impact of tariffs is so far proving unfounded, confirmed by the relatively benign May US consumer price index (CPI) data, released on 11 June. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG's Deputy CIO Daniel Murray reviews the latest inflation data.

12 giugno 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Don't Chase Yields

For many, the temptation to “reach for yield” in high yield bonds is strong—particularly in today’s environment. However, focusing solely on high yields often leads to poorer long term outcomes. We believe discipline, diversification, and a focus on credit‐quality tend to drive better long-term results.

11 giugno 2025
Read time: 4 minutes

Macro

What Pythagoras' theorem can teach us about the Fed

Pythagoras’ theorem — which states that the square of the hypotenuse equals the sum of the squares of the other two sides in a right-angled triangle — is not a standard tool in monetary policy. However, it does offer a surprisingly useful way to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s performance, as EFG’s Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach explores in this Macro Flash Note.

10 giugno 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Insight

Trump 2.0 and the potential for China shock 2.0

Trump’s second term has seen a dramatic escalation in trade tensions with China, with the potential for significant and long-lasting changes to trade patterns. In this edition of InFocus, Economist Sam Jochim analyses changes in China’s trade patterns during Trump’s first term, the impacts of these changes on Southeast Asian economies and the potential for another ‘China shock’ in Trump’s second term.

09 giugno 2025

Macro

Data dependency does not mean ECB rates have bottomed

On 05 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. In contrast to the recent past, President Lagarde’s comments do not offer guidance on the central bank’s next moves. In this Macro Flash Note, Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the factors that could influence the ECB’s future monetary policy.

06 giugno 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Dollar declines and tariff tumult

Welcome to the June edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

06 giugno 2025
Read time: 10 mins

Outlook 2026