Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Macro

Eurozone PMI data leaves the ECB in its comfort zone

Monthly purchasing managers' surveys provide reliable and timely indicators of the state of the eurozone economy. In this Macro Flash Note, Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato reviews the latest data and concludes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain in wait-and-see mode for some time.

28 agosto 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Chairman Powell signals September cut likely, if the data allow

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, indicating that a rate cut in September is likely, provided the data over the coming weeks do not surprise. With risks finely balanced, he avoided pre-empting the FOMC’s decision, but his remarks are the clearest indication yet of the Committee’s likely course. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach comments on Powell’s message and its implications for monetary policy.

26 agosto 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Podcast

Leadership, vision and judgement with EFG CEO Giorgio Pradelli

In the first of a special three-part series, Giorgio Pradelli, CEO of EFG International, joins Moz to discuss his personal and professional journey. From his early days in Torino, Italy, to leading one of Europe’s top private banks, Giorgio shares valuable insights on leadership, decision-making, building a strong company culture, and the importance of staying calm under pressure in today’s ever-changing business landscape.

21 agosto 2025

Macro

Is US Treasury debt risk free?

Lessons from 1933 and today’s “user fee” idea A US default may seem unthinkable, but history says otherwise. In 1933, President Roosevelt voided gold clauses and devalued the dollar, cutting the value of repayments. Today, senior Trump adviser Stephen Miran has proposed a “user fee” on Treasury holders, an idea which would have a similar effect. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach argues that investors must recognise that what has happened once can happen again.

20 agosto 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Japan: uncertainty begins to fade

The economic picture in Japan has been clouded by tariffs and an upper house election. Now that a bilateral trade agreement has been reached with the US and the election is in the rear-view mirror, the outlook appears clearer. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Sam Jochim assesses the forces prevalent in Japan’s economy.

15 agosto 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

US CPI: A notable absence of tariffs

The US consumer price index (CPI) release on 12 August was greeted with relief by markets, precipitating a rally in equity markets. At the same time the probability of a Fed rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meets in September increased from about 85% immediately prior to the release to about 95% immediately after. In this Macro Flash Note, Deputy CIO Daniel Murray highlights some interesting features of the data that suggest pre-Trump inflation trends remain intact for the time being, despite tariffs.

14 agosto 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Outlook 2026