New Capital China Equity Fund

Marketing Communication | Quarterly Commentary

Market Update

In the second quarter of 2024, the MSCI China All Shares index experienced a recovery, rising by 3.7%. However, there was a significant divergence in the performance of A shares versus H shares. The CSI 300 Index, representing A shares, declined by 2.1%, while the Hang Seng Index, representing H shares, increased by 7.1%.

Additionally, Chinese government bond yields reached record lows, with the 10-year China Government Bond (CGB) yield falling to its lowest level since 2002. This reflects the pessimistic views of domestic investors regarding the Chinese economy. Together with a strong US dollar, this led to the offshore renminbi depreciating to 7.3 towards the end of the quarter.

This quarter was marked by hopes of a revival in China’s economy. Fundamental data indicated some nascent signs of recovery, primarily supported by resilient export demand. However, the property sector remained a significant drag on the economy. The decline in prices, following a volume decline during the first two years of the downcycle, continued to weigh heavily. Consumption also remained lackluster, with local government and business-related demand muted due to substantially lower land sales revenue and weak macroeconomic conditions, respectively. While household consumption held up slightly better, particularly in travel and children-related spending. There were clear trends of trading down, and price wars were evident in most categories.

Policy changes provided a positive surprise against low expectations, driven by shifts in government priorities over the past few years. This was a key catalyst for the revival hope trade in 2Q24. Notably, in May, China announced stronger-than-expected property support measures, including government purchases of property inventory, reductions in down payments and mortgage rates, and the removal of purchase restrictions in Tier 1 cities. While these measures underscored the severe downturn in the property market, the incremental funding was still insufficient to reverse the downtrend in property prices. Furthermore, Beijing announced the holding of the Third Plenum in mid-July, which lifted hopes for economic stimulus from the meeting and the subsequent July Politburo meeting. However, these hopes moderated towards the end of the quarter as investors digested more detailed news from the meetings.

The weak performance of the A share market can be attributed to more pessimistic expectations by domestic investors and changes in market dynamics due to regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). Quantitative trading volume substantially shrank due to CSRC regulations, causing daily trading value to drop from around RMB 1 trillion at the beginning of the quarter to below RMB 600 billion towards the end. This resulted in a significant reduction in liquidity premiums, especially in the small-mid cap space. Moreover, the delisting of low-quality listed names had a negative ripple effect on market sentiment. The continued bear market and underperformance led to a vicious cycle of retail outflows and northbound outflows (foreign investors via Stock Connect). National Team buying and some small-scale buybacks were insufficient to offset the capital outflows from the A share market.

Fund Performance & Positioning

In the second quarter of 2024, the Fund outperformed the benchmark by over 2%. Despite this positive result, the outperformance of value stocks and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) presented a challenge, given our focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria. Our ESG focus, which excludes investments in coal and oil, along with certain SOEs that are subject to our global investment restrictions, cost the Fund approximately 35-40 basis points of relative performance during the quarter.

Top Contributors
The top contributors to performance were Bank of China (+22%), SDIC Power (+23%), Yutong Bus (+29%), and Foxconn Industrial Internet (+24%).

Bank of China:
Stable and defensive dividend policy led to substantial outperformance of large-cap state-owned banks.
Bank of China demonstrated clear alpha within the state-owned banking sector due to its higher overseas exposure, resulting in a more resilient net interest margin (NIM) compared to its peers.

SDIC Power:
Our long-term holding in SDIC Power is based on its monopolistic business model and strong cash flow from hydropower.
The addition of hydropower capacity supports high visibility of growth.
Positive near-term trends in power generation, driven by record levels of rainfall, contributed to its performance.
The stock was re-rated from a relatively attractive valuation as investors increasingly appreciated its monopolistic business nature and defensive business model.

Yutong Bus:
Strong export demand and a recovery in domestic demand, coupled with a favorable competitive landscape in commercial vehicles led by Yutong, boosted performance. Yutong's clear technology leadership, especially in electric buses, and its, in our view, best-in-class management team and shareholder returns (dividends) were significant factors.

Foxconn Industrial Internet:
The company was a key beneficiary and market share gainer in Nvidia's GB200, with Hon Hai being an important supplier for GB200, NVL36, and NVL72.
Foxconn also benefited from the iPhone upgrade cycle.

Key Detractors
The key detractors from fund performance were Li Auto (-42%), Shenzhen Inovance (-16%), and Techtronic (-15%).

Li Auto:
This was the single most incorrect stock call for the Fund year-to-date.
We initially favoured the company's product cycle and differentiated product positioning.
However, the unsuccessful launch of its MEGA MPV due to strategic and product positioning mistakes, along with the cancellation of three BEV models scheduled for this year, led us to exit the position.
We see uncertainties in demand for the company's products as it expands from hybrids to BEVs, which will determine the total addressable market (TAM) and long-term growth outlook, as well as sales volume towards end of 2024, given its existing models are becoming outdated in the highly competitive China auto market over a 12-month horizon.


Shenzhen Inovance:
Despite being one of our key high-quality long-term holdings and continuing to deliver market share gains, the stock's performance was dragged by macro uncertainties due to the cyclical nature of the business.
We have reduced the sizing of this holding amid macro uncertainties.

Techtronic:
The company's demand is primarily driven by US housing and investments, providing scarce exposure to the US interest rate cycle in our portfolio as a beneficiary of US interest rate cuts. The stock underperformed due to the backup in US interest rates and changes to the CEO, which we view as a reasonable transition. We remain positive on the industry's demand cycle and the company's ability to gain market share but have reduced the sizing slightly due to the expectation of US interest rate cuts being pushed later.

New Capital China Equity Fund MSCI China All Shares Net Total Return Difference
1 Month -1.68% -0.02% -1.66%
3 Month -5.86% -3.18% -2.68%
6 Month -1.32% +3.28% -4.6%
YTD -3.3% +1.54% -4.84%
1Yr -9.28% -4.71% -4.57%
3Yr Annualized -23.54% -14.94% -8.6%
5Yr Annualized -4.16% -3.93% -0.23%
Since inception annualized +2.04% +2.12% -0.08%
Since inception 20.08.2012 +27.5% +28.74% -1.24%

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of your investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise as a result of market as well as currency fluctuations and you may not get back the full amount invested. Fund performance is net of fees and representative of the USD I Acc Share Class and shows a maximum of five previous calendar years and current year to date (computed on a NAV to NAV basis). Where share class inception begins prior to the five previous years the chart has been rebased to 100. Where the Fund has fewer than five full years of performance, returns are shown from the inception date. Source: EFG Asset Management, Bloomberg.  As at 31 Aug 2024.

Outlook

Over the past three years, the prolonged market downturn has raised significant questions regarding the investment thesis for China. The Chinese market entered 2023 with unreasonably elevated expectations for a robust reopening. However, several unforeseen challenges emerged, including the deterioration of US-China relations following the spy balloon incident in February, a lackluster recovery momentum due to lingering economic wounds, a more severe than expected slump in the property market, and piecemeal policy support instead of the comprehensive stimulus packages seen in previous downcycles.

Current Sentiment and Expectations
In 2024, the fundamental momentum remains poor, and the sentiment within the private sector and among households is concerning and well-known to investors. As a result, expectations are much more moderate compared to those in 2023. Investors are now waiting for more forceful policy stimulus to restore the economy and boost confidence. The slight positive surprise in policy measures during 2Q24 suggests that we may be at the bottom of the policy cycle.

Long-term Structural Issues and Opportunities
Taking a step back, long-term structural problems, such as those in the property sector, are well recognized. Despite these challenges, China remains the second-largest economy in the world, continuing to grow at a decent rate, playing a crucial role in global demand and supply chains and savings remains high. This provides various investment opportunities due to its economic size and industry diversity. We see significant potential for stock picking in this environment. We also see upside potential should consumer confidence recover.

Path to Recovery
A sustainable recovery in domestic demand is essential to restore the investment case for China in the medium term. Given the current market conditions, we maintain a low-risk portfolio and focus our efforts on identifying and investing in high-quality stocks. This approach allows us to navigate the uncertainties while positioning ourselves to capitalize on potential opportunities as the market stabilizes and recovers.

In conclusion, while the near-term outlook remains challenging, the long-term investment thesis for China still holds promise. We remain vigilant and adaptive, seeking to leverage our expertise in stock picking to deliver value to our investors.

Disclaimer

MARKETING COMMUNICATION

For professional clients, qualified investors and accredited investors only. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, your capital is at risk. Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

All sources: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited ("EFGAM"), Factset, Bloomberg, Morningstar as at end of the month.  Any other sources as applicable. 

This document has been produced by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for use by the EFG International  ("EFG Group" or "EFG") worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the EFG Group. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, registered no. 7389736. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111. 

This document has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information contained herein constitutes a marketing communication and should not be construed as financial research or analysis, an offer, a public offer, an investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to financial instruments and/or to the provision of a financial service. It is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. The content of this document is intended only for persons who understand and are capable of assuming all risks involved. Further, this document is not intended to provide any financial, legal, accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in this regard. The information in this document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. You should seek your own professional advice (including tax advice) suitable to your particular circumstances prior to making any investment or if you are in doubt as to the information in this document. 

Performance results shown are net of applicable fees and expenses. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks, involving but not limited to, currency exchange and market risks, fluctuations in value, liquidity risk and, where applicable, possible loss of principal invested. Some funds may have high volatility owing to portfolio composition or the portfolio management techniques utilised or be subject to various other risk factors. Such risks are set out in the Prospectus and KIID/KID.

A copy of the English version of the prospectus of the Fund and the key investor information document relating to the Fund is available on www.newcapital.com and may also be obtained from EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited. Where required under national rules, the key investor information document/the key information document will also be available in the local language of the relevant EEA Member State. 

The information provided in this document is not the result of financial research conducted by EFGAM’s research department. Therefore, it does not constitute investment or independent research as defined in EU regulation (such as “MIFID II” or “MIFIR”) nor under the Swiss “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” issued by the Swiss Banking Association or any other equivalent local rules. Investors should carefully read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and review such documents prior to taking any investment decisions.  This information can be obtained on request and free of charge from your client relationship officer.

Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited is the appointed Management Company and is regulated by the CBI. The Manager is a private limited company incorporated in Ireland under the company registration number C123529 with its registered office at 4th Floor, 35 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin, D04 A4E0, Ireland.
 
Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no member of the EFG group represents or warrants its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. This document may contain personal opinions which do not necessarily reflect the position of any member of the EFG group. To the fullest extent permissible by law, no member of the EFG group shall be responsible for the consequences of any errors or omissions herein, or reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein, and each member of the EFG group expressly disclaims any liability, including (without limitation) liability for incidental or consequential damages, arising from the same or resulting from any action or inaction on the part of the recipient in reliance on this document.

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Comparisons to indexes or benchmarks in this material are being provided for illustrative purposes only and have limitations because indexes and benchmarks have material characteristics that may differ from the particular investment strategies that are being pursued by EFG and securities in which it invests.

The information and views expressed herein at the time of writing are subject to change at any time without notice and there is no obligation to update or remove outdated information.
 
Risks associated with debt instruments with loss-absorption features – the Fund/Note/Account may invest in debt instruments with loss-absorption features, for example, contingent convertible debt securities (“CoCos”), senior non-preferred debts and subordinated debts issued by financial institutions. These debt instruments are subject to greater risks when compared to traditional debt instruments as such instruments typically include terms and conditions which may result in them being partly or wholly written off, written down, or converted to ordinary shares of the issuer upon the occurrence of a pre-defined trigger event (e.g. when the issuer is near or at the point of non-viability or when the issuer’s capital ratio falls to a specified level). Such trigger events are likely to be outside of the issuer’s control and are complex and difficult to predict and can result in a significant or total reduction in the value of such instruments.
 
Country of origin of the collective investment scheme:  Ireland.  The information contained in this document is merely a brief summary of key aspects of the fund.

More complete information on the fund can be found in the relevant memorandum and articles of association, prospectus, key information document, the addenda, the supplements and the most recent audited annual report and the most recent semi-annual report. These documents constitute the sole binding basis for the purchase of fund units. Copies of these documents are available free of charge and may be obtained upon request from www.newcapital.com and also as follows:

Ireland: from the registered office of the Fund at 35 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin, Ireland

United Kingdom:  from the UK facilities agent, EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AF, United Kingdom

Switzerland: from the Swiss representative, CACEIS (Switzerland) SA, Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon 2 and the paying agent, EFG Bank SA, 24 Quai du Seujet, CH-1211, Geneva 2, Switzerland.

Italy: from the Italian paying agent, All funds Bank S.A.U., Milan Branch, Via Santa Margherita, 7 – 20121, Milan, Italy

Germany: from the German Facility Agent, FE fundinfo (Luxembourg) S.a.r.l. 6 Boulevard des Lumières, Belvaux 4369 Luxembourg

Austria, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden: from the European Facility Service provider, FE fundinfo with registered address 6 Boulevard des Lumières, Belvaux, 4369 Luxembourg

Cyprus: from the Cypriot Paying Agent Eurobank Cyprus Ltd, 41 Makariou Avenue, 1065, Nicosia, Cyprus

Greece: from the Greek Paying Agent, Eurobank S.A., 8 Othonos Street, 10557 Athens, Greece

A summary of investor rights associated with an investment in the Fund shall be available in English from www.newcapital.com.

Termination of marketing arrangements: Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited have the right to terminate the arrangements made for marketing the Fund in certain jurisdictions and to certain investors. In such circumstances, Shareholders in the affected EEA Member State will be notified of this decision and will be provided with the opportunity to redeem their shareholding in the Fund free of any charges or deductions for at least 30 working days from the date of such notification. 

European Union: Waystone Investment Management (IE) Limited is the European investment distributor and is authorized in Ireland as an investment firm under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive. Waystone Investment Management (IE) Limited acts as a distributor
in the European Union under reference number C1011 and Ireland. Waystone Investment Management (IE) Limited does not provide investment advice on an independent basis.

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The Fund has not been authorised or recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), and the units in the Fund (the "Units") are not allowed to be offered to the retail public. Moreover, the Information Memorandum is not a prospectus as defined in the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore, as amended or modified from time to time (“SFA”), and statutory liability under the SFA in relation to the content of prospectuses would not apply. The Information Memorandum has not been and will not be registered as a prospectus with the MAS. Accordingly, the Information Memorandum, this document and any other document or material in connection with the offer or sale, or invitation for subscription or purchase, of the Units may not be circulated or distributed, nor may the Units be offered or sold, or be made the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public, any member of the public or any person in Singapore, other than under an exemption provided in the SFA for offers made (a) to an institutional investor (as defined in Section 4A of the SFA) pursuant to Section 304 of the SFA, (b) to a relevant person (as defined in Section 305(5) of the SFA), or any person pursuant to an offer referred to in Section 305(2) of the SFA, and in accordance with the conditions specified in Section 305 of the SFA, or (c) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with, the conditions of any other applicable provision of the SFA. The Units are classified as "capital markets products other than prescribed capital markets products" (as defined in the Securities and Futures (Capital Markets Products) Regulations 2018 and Specified Investment Products (as defined in MAS Notice SFA 04-N12: Notice on the Sale of Investment Products and MAS Notice FAA-N16: Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products).

Information for investors in Australia: 
For Professional, Institutional and Wholesale Investors Only. This document has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, a private limited company with registered number 7389736 and with its registered office address at Park House, Park Street, London W1K 6AP (telephone number +44 (0)20 7491 9111). EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is regulated and authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority No. 536771. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA Registration No. 536771) under the laws of the United Kingdom which differ from Australian laws.  This document is personnal and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, to any other person.
 ASIC Class Order CO 03/1099 EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited notifies you that it is relying on the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) Class Order CO 03/1099 (Class Order) exemption (as extended in operation by ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional Instrument 2016/396) for UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulated firms which exempts it from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Corporations Act) in respect of the financial services we provide to you. 

UK Regulatory Requirements 
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IMPORTANT NOTE: FOR PUBLICATIONS WITH CONTENT RELATED TO FUNDS

Offering Documents 

Neither this document nor any document under which Interests in the New Capital UCITS Fund plc (the “Fund”) are offered is a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other formal disclosure document under the Corporations Act.  Interests in the Fund may not be offered, issued, sold or distributed in Australia other than by way of or pursuant to an offer or invitation that does not need disclosure to investors either under Part 7.9 or Part 6D.2 of the Corporations Act, whether by reason of the investor being a wholesale client (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act and applicable regulations) or otherwise. Nothing in this document nor any document under which interests in the Fund are offered constitutes an offer of interests in a financial product or financial product advice to a 'retail client' (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act and applicable regulations).

The issuer of the interests in the Fund relies on exemptions available under Australian law from the need to hold an AFSL for the provision of financial services to Australian wholesale clients. Note that as all investors must be wholesale clients, no cooling off rights are available in relation to an investment in the Fund.

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