New Capital Emerging Markets Future Leaders Fund

Marketing Communication

Executive Summary

Key events in market

March closed out a strong first quarter for equity markets. Emerging markets were approximately in line with global benchmarks with a wide dispersion across countries – with Taiwan leading the major markets up over 7% and Egypt the weakest, down over 33%.

Key performance & positioning updates

The Fund outperformed its benchmark (Solactive Emerging Markets ex China) in March by 44bps. From an attribution perspective, South Korea, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates were the largest positive contributors. Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and South Africa were the largest detracting markets.

Market Update

March closed out a strong first quarter for equity markets, with global indices rising 2.3% in the month and almost 8% for the quarter – led by the US. Emerging markets were approximately in line with global benchmarks with a wide dispersion across countries – with Taiwan leading the major markets up over 7% and Egypt the weakest, down over 33% (in USD). With more excitement about Federal Reserve press conference guidance, we see it as almost deliberately vague around inflation targeting (2% will be reached “over time”). It seems that the employment component of the mandate will be prioritised (especially in an election year) and this coincides with a reversal of some inflationary data in recent weeks. All in, this continued dovish stance remains positive for emerging markets which themselves have significant monetary policy levers to pull – and already being pulled, in the case of Latin America.

As mentioned, Taiwan was the standout market in Asia as the “AI picks and shovels” thesis gathered more momentum. Microsoft’s announcement that they are planning a data center project with OpenAI worth $100bn, including a “Stargate” supercomputer, is supportive of the white box makers. Hon Hai has, in particular, seen rising AI (artificial intelligence) rack and system sales for Nvidia GB200. As a key module manufacturer for Nvidia’s GPU system, the latter’s product announcement on 18th March promotes more bundling of functionality – GPU, CPU, NVLink switch, power cooling – an area of their expertise. South Korea is another key beneficiary, rising 4.9% for the month. Memory chip manufacturers (Samsung Electronics and Hynix) are helped by 1) increased demand from data centre investment in general which has tightened industry supply and demand dynamics; and 2) high band-width memory demand, which expands the profit pool. India was slightly weaker this month, falling more than 1%, pausing their strong gains in the quarter (+7%). Part of this was driven by continued weakness in the information technology services sectors – the counter-balance to Taiwan and South Korea – where we see both structural and cyclical issues. But is likely as much driven by some profit taking in advance of April’s elections as we have seen incremental government involvement in sectors (e.g. caps on hospital pricing or limits on purchasing certain equity market products), despite the rosy macroeconomic picture. China disappointed in March, rising 30bps and falling over 1.5% in the first quarter. As discussed at length: structural issues around significant unfinished housing inventory and associated leverage are yet unresolved; despite potential green shoots around improved consumer confidence.

Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa had a weaker month. Most of the action was in Greece where Piraeus Financial Holdings began the final lap of privatisation. The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund placing 27% of the company in the market. Whilst not significant in the context of global capital markets, the Euro 1.3bn placing was several times over-subscribed and marks a symbolic moment of catharsis for a sector so troubled a decade ago and so robust today. After a strong run into this liquidity the market gave back (-2.6%). Qatar gave back February’s gains after continued weak domestic growth impacting the financial sector. South Africa was the biggest winner, rising 4%, driven by the platinum group metal companies who benefitted from a perspective of longer autocatalyst demand thanks to weaker electric vehicle demand and tighter supply due to production cuts – e.g. project deferrals at Impala and closure of small mines such as Pilanesberg.

In Egypt, equities fell 33% on currency devaluation following February’s Ras Al-Hekma land deal move. With more funding from the IMF ($8bn), after the UAE, this is a positive in that it encourages a freely floating exchange rate and allows for greater visibility and the resumption of domestic investment at “real” prices, removing the FX overhang. In the short term there is upside risk to 1) the Egyptian Pound on portfolio inflows into fixed income securities and domestic de-dollarisation, with disinflationary benefits from these and greater availability of goods as USD backlogs clear supply chains. This should we believe, in turn, 2) drive higher lending growth and 3) NIM (Net Interest Margin) expansion as banks are geared to higher rates (the Egyptian Central Bank hiked 600bps to 27.75% on 6 March). Management have upgraded return expectations.

Latin America had a mixed March: Mexico rose almost 5% (closing the quarter modestly positive) thanks to continued strength from Grupo Mexico. Continued supply concerns have driven sharply higher copper prices – despite the issues around housing completions in China. Brazil ended a lackluster quarter down 8.9%, falling -2.2% for the month. There was widespread weakness across large sectors: discretionary consumer, materials – mainly driven by lower iron ore prices; and energy. This has been a disappointing quarter for the market but driven by 1) pulled forward performance given a strong Q4 2023 and 2) US interest rates differentials, with the Real falling 1.6% in March and 3.69%.

Fund Performance & Positioning

Fund performance was solid in relative terms. From a sector contribution perspective, positions in Consumer Discretionary and underweights in Materials and Energy were the positive contributors. Information Technology, Industrials and Healthcare were the detractors.

In Consumer Discretionary, Despegar the pan-Latin American online travel agent was the biggest positive contributor. The company delivered solid Q4 2023 results driven by better gross bookings with Brazil growing 56%, Mexico 28% and the Rest of Latam 40%, as the travel market continues to recover and the company takes share. The thesis is relatively simple here: the company has been enjoying significant tailwinds from a recovery in travel within and outside the Latin American region, where the business enjoys robust positioning due to its online and (after some judicious acquisitions) offline channel assets. With significant operating leverage in the model from a recovery in incrementally higher margin volumes, a new CFO has brought a fresh approach to tightening their processes particularly around 1) operating costs, 2) working capital management and 3) foreign exchange translation. This has created significant additional profit upside, which analysts have been slow to incorporate into their forecasts.

In the materials sector, strength in copper directly benefited our position in Grupo Mexico – and was complemented by weakness in iron ore, where we are lightly positioned. Copper has benefitted from tight supply since Q4 2023 after the closure of Cobre Panama. More recent moves by China copper smelters – who product half of the world’s refined copper – to cut production by 5-10%, as their profitability is squeezed by tight margins, has added further to the upward trajectory of prices. Whilst this will not reduce the supply of copper and is an attempt by the smelters to improve their economics, it is indicative of major mined concentrate shortages. Iron ore fell below $100 at the end of the month to mark a difficult quarter, with steel prices falling to nice month lows in China with weak construction demand and limited output cuts. This feels like a story as old as time with China, where market forces remain subordinate to job creation.
In the energy sector, ADNOC Drilling reversed February’s losses and rallied healthily. This was partly a function of the changing in narrative around drilling activity in the region from ARAMCO (despite not directly impacting the company), as the Saudi National Oil company indicated that rig operations would not dip due to the continued investment in unconventional wells. Their results were also solid.

Accton (switches), Totvs (ERP software) and Elm Company (digitisation services) were the culprits in the information technology sector. For Accton, 2023 results were slightly soft (driven by relatively weak legacy/telco data centre demand) and the outlook for the near term was muted, which led to a slightly soft share price performance. There was no fundamental news around Totvs in the month, but it suffered from movement in rates and a broker downgrade. Elm Company delivered results broadly in line with expectations and guidance that revenue growth would remain solid, but margins fell in light of project ramp up costs. Elm has performed extremely well – both fundamentally and in terms of the multiple the market has been willing to assign it.

New Capital Emerging Markets Future Leaders Fund Benchmark Difference
1 Month +1.71% +1.27% +0.44%
3 Month +2% +1.11% +0.89%
6 Month +12.73% +13.49% -0.76%
YTD +2% +1.11% +0.89%
1Yr +20.55% +20.33% +0.22%
3Yr Annualized - - -
5Yr Annualized - - -
Since inception annualized +5.18% +3.1% +2.08%
Since inception 28.03.2022 +10.64% +6.31% +4.33%

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of your investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise as a result of market as well as currency fluctuations and you may not get back the full amount invested. Fund performance is net of fees and representative of the USD I Acc Share Class and shows a maximum of five previous calendar years and current year to date (computed on a NAV to NAV basis). Where share class inception begins prior to the five previous years the chart has been rebased to 100. Where the Fund has fewer than five full years of performance, returns are shown from the inception date. Source: EFG Asset Management, Bloomberg.  As at 31 March 2024.

Outlook

The sharp move in US yields at the back end of March caused a day of major reversal in performance, without which the month would have been stronger. This reflects the uncertainty and continued pull between the forces of inflation and growth. Whilst the dovish tone remains, we see a different approach from central bankers in Emerging Markets. Asians are perhaps prudently waiting for the Fed to start cutting before they do whilst Latin America is quicker off the mark. The benefit to their domestic economies is yet to be seen but the differential narrowing has, as discussed, manifested itself in weaker currencies (particularly in Brazil). The latter is not negative in the medium term as consumption should recover and asset class rotations begin. But we have seen the airpocket in equity markets this has created.

There are three major elections in the second quarter. After the relative non-event of Mayoral elections in Turkey (with no likely change in monetary policy – the only thing that really matters there at the moment) eyes now turn to India. Consensus predicts a Modi victory and continuity in policy. In terms of equity markets, however, headwinds for banks and construction in terms of growth hiatus as policy is cemented are potential election outcomes. After India, we have South Africa in May. Here the ANC are likely to achieve below 50% of the vote for the first time – perhaps as little as 43-45%. With a coalition looming, this brings divergent potential outcomes: a tie up with the DA (Democratic Alliance) would be the best case, and perhaps the most likely. Despite room for disappointment given 1) reluctant support for the ANC from the DA; and 2) politically painful processes to pass reforms – we would expect markets to respond positively to this outcome. The lower probability but downside risk would be a stronger showing from the Marxist-Leninist EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) and/or MK (uMkhonto weSizwe), giving a radical tilt to the ANC – bringing a deepening of the crisis. And finally Mexico in June, a Claudia Sheinbaum victory is the most likely outcome. This is relatively positive given her record on security in Mexico City (44% reduction in homicides over three years) and technocratic approach. But any major deviation from AMLO’s policies as unlikely given her reliance on his influence and the need to maintain unity in her party. So whilst there may be some fiscal improvement, there is unlikely to be any improvement of private investment in the energy sector (particularly around renewables) given PEMEX’s stifling primacy.

So where are Emerging Markets in the context of global assets at the end of Q1? Clearly they have lagged as the US in particular has run hard. This is disappointing but are other markets overbought? The S&P500 multiple of 21x 2024e with 12% earnings growth seems relatively expensive versus our Fund at 14x for 17% earnings growth, when both have the same return metrics.

For fund prospectus and KIID, please visit https://www.newcapital.com/products/funds-and-performance/New-Capital-Emerging-Markets-Future-Leaders-Fund.html?isin=IE000TDJT6P5

Disclaimer

For professional clients, qualified investors and accredited investors only. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, your capital is at risk. Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

Performance contribution is gross of fees, all other performance shown is net of fees and expenses. Please refer to the Prospectus for further information on this Fund and prior to any subscription. All data sourced New Capital, EFGAM, Bloomberg, as at title date, unless otherwise stated.

Issued in the UK by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA Registration No. 536771). Registered No: 7389746. Registered address: Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP. Telephone: +44 (0)20 7491 9111.

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These documents constitute the sole binding basis for the purchase of fund units. Copies of these documents are available free of charge in the United Kingdom at EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited (“EFGAM”), Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom. Copies of these documents are available free of charge in Germany at the offices of the German information agent, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Königsallee 21/23, 40212 Düsseldorf, Germany. Copies of these documents are available free of charge in France from the French centralizing agent, Societe Generale, 29, boulevard Haussmann – 75009 Paris, France. Copies of these documents are available free of charge from the Swiss Representative: CACEIS (Switzerland) SA, Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon, Switzerland. Paying Agent: EFG Bank SA. 24 Quai du Seujet, CH-1211, Geneva 2, Switzerland.

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Licensed in terms of the Investment Services Act (Cap 370) as an Investment Firm and is regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority (Authorisation ID KIL2-IF-16174). KBA Investments Limited is a sub-distributor in certain countries in the European Union for EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited. For the full list of EU countries, please visit the https://www.mfsa.mt/financial-services-register/ . Registered Office: Trident Park, Notabile Gardens, No 2 - Level 3, Zone 2, Central Business District, Birkirkara, Malta. Registered in Malta No. C97015

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A copy of the English version of the prospectus of the Fund and the key investor information document relating to the Fund is available on www.newcapital.com and may also be obtained from EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited. Where required under national rules, the key investor information document/the key information document will also be available in the local language of the relevant EEA Member State.

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A decision may be taken at any time to terminate the arrangements made for the marketing of the Fund in any EEA Member State in which it is currently marketed. In such circumstances, Shareholders in the affected EEA Member State will be notified of this decision and will be provided with the opportunity to redeem their shareholding in the Fund free of any charges or deductions for at least 30 working days from the date of such notification.
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France
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Information for investors in Australia
This document has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, a private limited company with registered number 7389746 and with its registered office address at Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP (telephone number +44 (0)20 7491 9111). EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is regulated and authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority No.536771.
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Offering Documents
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Americas
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Notice to Residents of Chile: Fecha de inicio de la oferta: [11.10.2013]
(i) La presente oferta se acoge a la Norma de Carácter General N° 336 de la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros de Chile.
(ii) La presente oferta versa sobre valores no inscritos en el Registro de Valores o en el Registro de Valores Extranjeros que lleva la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, por lo que los valores sobre los cuales ésta versa, no están sujetos a su fi scalización;
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(iv) Estos valores no podrán ser objeto de oferta pública mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente.
(i) The commencement date of the offer and the fact that the relevant offer is made pursuant to this SVS Rule 336;
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Hong Kong
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Singapore
The Fund and the offer of the Shares / Units which are the subjects of this document do not relate to a collective investment scheme which is authorised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) under section 286 of the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) (the "SFA") or recognised by the MAS under section 287 of the SFA, and Shares / Units of the Fund are not allowed to be offered to the retail public.

This document (as well as any other document issued in connection with the offer or sale of Shares / Units is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA, nor will it be lodged or registered as a prospectus with the MAS and, accordingly, statutory liability under the SFA in relation to the content of prospectuses does not apply, and potential investors should carefully consider whether an investment in the Shares / Units is suitable for them. The MAS assumes no responsibility for the contents of this document (nor any other document issued in connection with the offer or sale of the Shares / Units.

No offer of the Shares / Units for subscription or purchase, or invitation to subscribe for or purchase the Shares / Units, may be made, nor any document or other material (including but not limited to this document relating to the Shares / Units may be circulated or distributed, either directly or indirectly, to any person in Singapore other than: (i) to an institutional investor (as defined in section 4A of the SFA) pursuant to section 304 of the SFA; (ii) to a relevant person (as defined in section 305(5) of the SFA) pursuant to section 305(1) of the SFA; (iii) on terms that the minimum consideration is the equivalent of Singapore dollars 200,000 in accordance with section 305(2) of the SFA; or (iv) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other exemption under the SFA.

Pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, read in conjunction with regulation 32 of and the Sixth Schedule to the Securities and Futures (Offers of Investments) (Collective Investment Schemes) Regulations 2005, the Fund has been entered into the list of restricted schemes maintained by the MAS for the purposes of offering Shares / Units in the Fund to relevant persons (as defined in section 305(5) of the SFA), or, for the purposes of offering Shares / Units in the Fund in accordance with the conditions of section 305(2) of the SFA.

Where an offer is made to institutional investors pursuant to section 304 of the SFA, the following restrictions (under section 304A) apply to Shares / Units acquired pursuant to such an offer. Where such Shares / Units are first sold to any person other than an institutional investor, the requirements of Subdivisions (2) and (3) of Division 2 to Part XIII of the SFA will apply to the offer resulting in such sale, save where the Shares / Units acquired are of the same class as, or can be converted into Shares / Units of the same class as, the other Shares / Units:
i. which are listed for quotation on an approved exchange (as defined in the SFA); and
ii. in respect of which any offer information statement, introductory document, unitholders’ circular for a reverse take-over, document issued for the purposes of a trust scheme, or any other similar document approved by an approved exchange (as defined in the SFA), was issued in connection with an offer of those Shares / Units, or the listing for quotation of those Shares / Units.

Where an offer is made to relevant persons pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, the following restrictions (under section 305A) apply to Shares / Units acquired pursuant to such an offer. Where such Shares / Units are first sold to any person other than (i) an institutional investor; (ii) a relevant person; or (iii) on terms in accordance with section 305(2) of the SFA, the requirements of Subdivisions (2) and (3) of Division 2 to Part XIII of the SFA will apply to the offer resulting in such sale, save where the Shares / Units acquired are of the same class as other Shares / Units:
i. which are listed for quotation on an approved exchange (as defined in the SFA); and
ii. in respect of which any offer information statement, introductory document, unitholders’ circular for a reverse take-over, document issued for the purposes of a trust scheme, or any other similar document approved by an approved exchange (as defined in the SFA), was issued in connection with an offer of those Shares or Units, or the listing for quotation of those Shares / Units.

Further, where the Shares / Units are acquired pursuant to an offer made in reliance on section 305 of the SFA and the acquirer is:
a. a corporation which is not an accredited investor (as defined in the SFA), whose sole business is to hold investments and the entire share capital of which is owned by individuals each of whom is an accredited investor); or
b. a trust of which the trustee is not an accredited investor and whose sole purpose is to hold investments for the benefit of beneficiaries each of whom is an accredited investor,
then no securities of such a corporation and no rights and interests of the beneficiaries in such a trust (as the case may be) shall be transferred for a period of 6 months from the time the corporation or trust (as the case may be) acquired the Shares / Units, unless such transfers are in accordance with the conditions specifically provided in sections 305A(2) and 305A(3) of the SFA (as the case may be).