MARKETING COMMUNICATION
For professional clients, qualified investors and accredited investors only. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, your capital is at risk. Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
All sources: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited ("EFGAM"), Factset, Bloomberg, Morningstar as at end of the month. Any other sources as applicable.
This document has been produced by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for use by the EFG International ("EFG Group" or "EFG") worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the EFG Group. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, registered no. 7389736. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111.
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More complete information on the fund can be found in the relevant memorandum and articles of association, prospectus, key information document, the addenda, the supplements and the most recent audited annual report and the most recent semi-annual report. These documents constitute the sole binding basis for the purchase of fund units. Copies of these documents are available free of charge and may be obtained upon request from www.newcapital.com and also as follows:
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United Kingdom: from the UK facilities agent, EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AF, United Kingdom
Switzerland: from the Swiss representative, CACEIS (Switzerland) SA, Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon 2 and the paying agent, EFG Bank SA, 24 Quai du Seujet, CH-1211, Geneva 2, Switzerland.
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Greece: from the Greek Paying Agent, Eurobank S.A., 8 Othonos Street, 10557 Athens, Greece
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Information for investors in Australia:
For Professional, Institutional and Wholesale Investors Only. This document has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, a private limited company with registered number 7389736 and with its registered office address at Park House, Park Street, London W1K 6AP (telephone number +44 (0)20 7491 9111). EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is regulated and authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority No. 536771. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA Registration No. 536771) under the laws of the United Kingdom which differ from Australian laws. This document is personnal and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, to any other person.
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New Capital Japan Equity Fund
Marketing Communication | Quarterly Commentary
Market Update
Consumers’ real buying power is still strongly debated and a generalized salary increase isn’t yet enough to compensate for the negative effect. Manufacturing activities seemed to have found a bottom and it is likely that a turnaround is just around the corner. Profit repatriation incentivized by tax breaks should help to support the yen.
In 2023, Japan confirmed its net creditor status, with the net external assets growing to $3tn, increasing for a sixth straight year, as a weak yen and overseas corporate acquisitions boosted the value of its foreign assets. Japan's listed companies are assuming an average exchange rate of 144 yen per dollar in their latest earnings forecasts. The focus of the nation's tourism sector is now to redirect the inbound travel route offerings to less-known destinations.
More statistics are steadily confirming better growth prospects for the Japanese economy, which is also relevant for the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decisions. A set of factors are the cause for the yen weakness, in particular the energy bill, with most of the energy consumption still imported and priced in US dollars even if the “core-core” inflation is slowly nearing the BoJ target.
The proportion of small and midsize firms in Japan raising base pay has increased from the previous fiscal year to reach 63.1% (from 54.3% of last fiscal year and still lower than the 81.1% for big companies) amid high inflation and acute labour shortages as a recent government survey showed.
The Ministry of Finance confirmed that it spent a record ¥9.8tr ($62bn) in intervention late April/early May. Despite this, yen weakness persists.
Fund Performance & Positioning
During the quarter the market went up by 2.23% and the Fund recorded a +1.75% return. The 48bp underperformance can be largely explained by stock selection.
The relative overweight in the tech space (info tech and communication) was a performance detractor as well as the industrials. The opposite is true for the financials with both sector overweight and stock picking effective. Zero exposure in energy and utilities had no impact on performance.
Fund management activity was influenced by cash outflows which have been partially matched by the existing cash but also raised by selling positions and top slicing others. A total of eight names exited the portfolio during this quarter, whilst we also used the opportunity to refocus our existing exposure within information and communication sectors and the smaller market cap segment. Three new companies have been added based on their competitive advantage and growth potential.
We continue to believe in the positive outcome of the structural trends in Japan which is especially relevant for the increased business opportunities in the service sectors and for the technology (digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) capex impact). The industrial sector continues to be instrumental (together with domestic demand) for economic growth in Japan.
The process of revisiting the Japanese corporate structure and the further push for more M&A has also become unavoidable and more stringent. The task to rethink the rationale for the cross held shares and its economic impact in terms of cost of capital and business relationship should also be sped up, which is already attracting foreign interest and shareholder activists.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of your investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise as a result of market as well as currency fluctuations and you may not get back the full amount invested. Fund performance is net of fees and representative of the GBP I Acc Share Class and shows a maximum of five previous calendar years and current year to date (computed on a NAV to NAV basis). Where share class inception begins prior to the five previous years the chart has been rebased to 100. Where the Fund has fewer than five full years of performance, returns are shown from the inception date. Source: EFG Asset Management, Bloomberg. As at 31 Aug 2024.
Outlook
Japan stock buybacks hit $57bn, speeding towards an annual record. Share buybacks in Japan are running at a record pace this year as listed companies respond to pressure to use capital more efficiently. Announced stock-repurchasing plans came to an all-time high of roughly ¥9tr ($57bn) for the January-May period, up roughly 60% on the year and close to the full-year record marked in 2023. The trend is helping to support stock prices, as well as providing an outlet for shares coming on the market as businesses unwind cross-shareholdings. 2024 is on track to be a third straight year of record-high repurchases. Around 10% of the companies disclosing buyback plans are doing so for the first time. Money which is usually allocated to China now seems to be being diverted to Japan based on expectations for better return opportunities. In fact, valuations in Japan are fair if not undemanding with the prospect of stronger corporate earnings stream and consequent lower valuations.
The number of accounts for the NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) tax exemption program for small-lot investors as of the end of March increased by 1.86m from the three months before. The number of accounts stood at 23,227,848, up 8.7% from the end of 2023 and up 24% from a year before. The NISA program was expanded at the start of 2024. Purchases through NISA accounts in January-March totalled ¥6,179.1bn, of which investment trusts made up 56.7% and publicly traded stocks 40.2%. People in their 40s were the biggest age group of account holders at 19.3%, followed by those in their 50s at 18.9% and 30s at 17.5%. The government aims to increase the number of accounts to 34m by the end of 2027 as part of its plan to double the asset (quite a substantial portion of the AuM) for non-Japanese are still the missing investor category in Japan.
The expected interest rate hike in Japan is an obvious topic but the impression here is that the impact will be economic structural zero or even a negative interest rate environment. We humbly advocate for the radical change in the BoJ monetary policy because the premises are in place.
Fund Manager
Michele Malingamba
Senior Portfolio Manager
Lugano
Fixed income
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