Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Podcast

Leadership, vision and judgement with EFG CEO Giorgio Pradelli

In the first of a special three-part series, Giorgio Pradelli, CEO of EFG International, joins Moz to discuss his personal and professional journey. From his early days in Torino, Italy, to leading one of Europe’s top private banks, Giorgio shares valuable insights on leadership, decision-making, building a strong company culture, and the importance of staying calm under pressure in today’s ever-changing business landscape.

21 August 2025

Macro

Is US Treasury debt risk free?

Lessons from 1933 and today’s “user fee” idea A US default may seem unthinkable, but history says otherwise. In 1933, President Roosevelt voided gold clauses and devalued the dollar, cutting the value of repayments. Today, senior Trump adviser Stephen Miran has proposed a “user fee” on Treasury holders, an idea which would have a similar effect. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach argues that investors must recognise that what has happened once can happen again.

20 August 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Japan: uncertainty begins to fade

The economic picture in Japan has been clouded by tariffs and an upper house election. Now that a bilateral trade agreement has been reached with the US and the election is in the rear-view mirror, the outlook appears clearer. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Sam Jochim assesses the forces prevalent in Japan’s economy.

15 August 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

US CPI: A notable absence of tariffs

The US consumer price index (CPI) release on 12 August was greeted with relief by markets, precipitating a rally in equity markets. At the same time the probability of a Fed rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meets in September increased from about 85% immediately prior to the release to about 95% immediately after. In this Macro Flash Note, Deputy CIO Daniel Murray highlights some interesting features of the data that suggest pre-Trump inflation trends remain intact for the time being, despite tariffs.

14 August 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Signs of promise for 2026, but potentially a bumpy ride

In the wake of the 'big, beautiful bill', Don Rissmiller shares his view that 2026 and beyond look positive for the US economy. However, there may be some turbulence in the final months of 2025 as tariff disruption and geopolitical pressures wash through the system.

14 August 2025

Managing Defaults in a High Yield Portfolio

Headlines and uncertainty around corporate defaults can be viewed as concerning. However, with the right investment process, defaults are just part and parcel of high yield investing. A corporate default occurs when an issuer fails to meet its debt obligations. From that point, the company typically enters a restructuring process, either in court or out of court via negotiations with creditors. The average time from default to restructuring is around 9 to 18 months, depending on the complexity. Simpler cases, such as when a company’s problems are operational rather than structural, can be resolved faster. Large, multi-layered capital structures with legal disputes can take longer

13 August 2025
Read time: 4 minutes

Mid-Year Outlook 2026