Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Macro

Signs of promise for 2026, but potentially a bumpy ride

In the wake of the 'big, beautiful bill', Don Rissmiller shares his view that 2026 and beyond look positive for the US economy. However, there may be some turbulence in the final months of 2025 as tariff disruption and geopolitical pressures wash through the system.

14 August 2025

Managing Defaults in a High Yield Portfolio

Headlines and uncertainty around corporate defaults can be viewed as concerning. However, with the right investment process, defaults are just part and parcel of high yield investing. A corporate default occurs when an issuer fails to meet its debt obligations. From that point, the company typically enters a restructuring process, either in court or out of court via negotiations with creditors. The average time from default to restructuring is around 9 to 18 months, depending on the complexity. Simpler cases, such as when a company’s problems are operational rather than structural, can be resolved faster. Large, multi-layered capital structures with legal disputes can take longer

13 August 2025
Read time: 4 minutes

Macro

Hawkish BoE cuts interest rates to 4% and signals slower easing pace going forward

The Bank of England (BoE) cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%. Although the decision was expected by markets, minutes from the meeting reflected a more hawkish approach from Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist and Strategist Joaquin Thul analyses the arguments behind this decision.

12 August 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Trump's tariffs on Brazil: You've got a friend in me

President Trump announced tariffs of 50% on US imports from Brazil. The imposition of these tariffs is not related to trade, immigration, drugs or an economic threat to the US. The additional duties are to help Brazil’s former President, and Trump’s close friend, Jair Bolsonaro. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Joaquin Thul discusses why these tariffs are unlikely to cause a major concern for Brazil for the time being.

11 August 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Reserve Bank of Australia: A rate cut now looks likely

At its July meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by leaving interest rates unchanged, despite recent signs of easing inflation. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach examines recent inflation developments and the broader economic backdrop and considers what they mean for the RBA’s upcoming policy decision in August.

07 August 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

A mixed corporate earnings environment

Welcome to the August edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

06 August 2025
Read time: 10 mins

Outlook 2026