New Capital Dynamic UK Equity Fund

Marketing Communication | Quarterly Commentary

Market Update

The UK market rose +3.5% over the quarter, outperforming the MSCI ACWI which was up +3.0% in GBP, while the MSCI UK Growth index was up +1.1%, underperforming the MSCI UK Value index which rose +5.8%. Over the quarter UK Large-Caps were up +4.5% outperforming Small-caps which rose +1.9% & Mid-caps which fell -1.0%. From a sector perspective Financials and Communication Services led the market in Q2 2024, while Consumer Discretionary and Utilities lagged.

While global markets started Q2 with a sharp selloff, the UK bucked the trend to post a strong positive gain through April helped by its defensive nature as well as outperformance from the energy and mining sectors. Geopolitical tensions continued to rise as Iran directly attacked Israel, while hotter than expected US inflation & labour market data both pushed out rate cut expectations and sent bond yields surging (the US 2yr yield broke above 5%), and this all drove equities lower. Risk of escalation in the Middle East saw oil break above $90, the highest level in 6 months, while M&A news and an improvement in sentiment in China also helped UK miners. UK macro data was also supportive with PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) remaining in expansionary territory at 53.1 and headline inflation continuing to moderate to 3.2%, though this was still slightly ahead of expectations keeping the BoE on hold.

A recovery was seen across markets through early May with indices breaking through record highs, though this faded somewhat towards the end of the month as higher for longer headlines returned and bond yields spiked yet again in what has been a running theme this year. US data came in softer on the labour and activity side, and Donald Trump became the first former president to hold a criminal conviction, while concentration risk also became apparent through the month with the equal weighted S&P notably lagging the SPX by 3.5%. In positive news for the UK, GDP came in ahead of estimates and headline inflation slowed to 2.3%. Though the Bank of England (BoE) elected to hold rates steady with services inflation still proving sticky, the central bank did adopt a more dovish tone to its commentary.

June saw some dispersion in equity markets, as the US continued its strong run to close out one of its strongest H1 periods, while European equity markets were dragged lower largely due to political headlines. Positive news that US inflation was finally turning lower (with a drop in supercore services) was tempered by slightly more hawkish leaning commentary from the Fed, which reigned in its expectations to just 1 cut forecast for this year from 3 previously, though this was largely already priced by the market. The main headlines came from Europe over the month however, where the widely expected first cut of 25bps was announced making the European Central Bank (ECB) the first of the major central banks to begin reducing interest rates, and a surprise snap election was announced in France which markets took negatively. Political campaigning also continued in the UK where it now appears likely that Labour will win in a landslide victory on 7th July, though we expect this to lead to little change to the status-quo given Labour’s now more centrist stance and limited fiscal headroom.

Fund Performance & Positioning

Whilst the Fund was able to deliver positive absolute returns, it slightly underperformed the benchmark (MSCI United Kingdom All Cap) over the quarter (by -0.62%) with relative returns particularly weak in April before recovering strongly through June. This year we have been focused on gearing the portfolio towards the upcoming change in interest rate regime by increasing longer duration growth, mid-cap and rate sensitive names that we expect to benefit as bond yields fall. Whilst we still believe that bond yields have peaked and that the medium-term direction of travel is lower, this makes periods where yields spike on ‘higher for longer’ fears tricky to navigate in the short term. This impact could clearly be seen through April as the US 10-year yield jumped from 4.2% to 4.7%, with this period of relative underperformance for fund almost completely unwound as the yield moderated back to 4.4% through May/June. We continue to believe that yields will moderate further as we move into an interest rate cutting cycle, and if so, the Fund is positioned to benefit from this dynamic.

Stocks that made the largest positive contribution to performance during the quarter were:

- BT (+28%) – Shares were buoyed by strong earnings with the company signalling peak capex is now behind them, and the news that Carlos Slim had taken a 3% stake in the company which reignited potential takeover rumours. Headlines from the Labour party manifesto also thankfully signalled support for BT’s rollout plans and calmed fears of regulatory change/interference with retail pricing
- RELX (+8%) – A number of positive broker notes initiating on the company, and around the positive tailwind it could see from generative artificial intelligence (AI) drove the shares higher. The shares were also helped by defensive quality stocks being in favour through June
- Halma (+14%) – Halma continued their successful track record of acquisitive growth with 2 bolt-on deals during the quarter in high-voltage testing and fire safety. Shares also surged following the release of record results for Q1 which came in well ahead of expectations with very strong cash conversion

Stocks that made the largest negative contribution to performance during the quarter:

- Wise (-27%) – Shares came under pressure in April, trading down 10% on the Q4 trading update which, despite showing 36% total income growth, missed market expectations on slowing volumes. Further weakness was seen in June post the FY24 results as the market focused on a weaker than expected FY25 15-20% revenue growth guidance, despite FY24 results beating expectations
- Diageo (-15%) – Monthly US spirits data continued to show declines in US volumes through the quarter, while inventory adjustments are ongoing with signs that wholesalers and retailers continue to be cautious with the potential for further destocking. This negative market momentum drove a number of analysts to revise earnings estimates lower
- Compass (-6%) – While the company beat market expectations for H1 earnings, the shares responded negatively to lack of commentary around new capital returns with M&A being prioritised over buybacks, and guidance pointing to a slower margin recovery than some areas of the market had hoped for.

Significant Changes:

We added Softcat in June, the leading VAR (value-added reseller) of IT software & hardware into the UK small & medium sized enterprise market. We believe the company is an attractive way to play the themes of digitalisation, accelerating cloud adoption in a post pandemic world, and an upcoming AI driven software & hardware upgrade cycle.

New Capital Dynamic UK Equity Fund MSCI United Kingdom All Cap Index Difference
1 Month +0.11% +0.68% -0.57%
3 Month +1.75% +2.48% -0.73%
6 Month +8.73% +12.52% -3.79%
YTD +7.13% +11.45% -4.32%
1Yr +13.86% +17.69% -3.83%
3Yr Annualized +7.68% +7.87% -0.19%
5Yr Annualized +6.84% +6.47% +0.37%
Since inception annualized +6.29% +6.43% -0.14%
Since inception 03.11.2016 +61.16% +62.76% -1.6%

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of your investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise as a result of market as well as currency fluctuations and you may not get back the full amount invested. Fund performance is net of fees and representative of the GBP I Acc Share Class and shows a maximum of five previous calendar years and current year to date (computed on a NAV to NAV basis). Where share class inception begins prior to the five previous years the chart has been rebased to 100. Where the Fund has fewer than five full years of performance, returns are shown from the inception date. Source: EFG Asset Management, Bloomberg.  As at 31 Aug 2024.

Outlook

We continue to favour a quality & cash-generative company focus, noting that while inflation does appear to be cooling leading macro indicators continue to point to slowing economic growth and earnings revisions remain in a negative trend. While a Labour victory in the upcoming UK General Election appears a forgone conclusion at this point (and we expect markets to have already priced this outcome to a large degree) we believe that the removal of political uncertainty and the refocusing on an upcoming interest rate pivot will create a number of opportunities for UK equities through the second half of the year. We expect an outperformance of both rate sensitive and longer duration growth companies, while we also see an opportunity for a reversal in fortunes for FTSE 250 companies which trade at depressed valuations to their large cap peers after a long period of underperformance through high rates & inflation.

Disclaimer

MARKETING COMMUNICATION

For professional clients, qualified investors and accredited investors only. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, your capital is at risk. Note: Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

All sources: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited ("EFGAM"), Factset, Bloomberg, Morningstar as at end of the month.  Any other sources as applicable. 

This document has been produced by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for use by the EFG International  ("EFG Group" or "EFG") worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the EFG Group. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, registered no. 7389736. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AP, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111. 

This document has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information contained herein constitutes a marketing communication and should not be construed as financial research or analysis, an offer, a public offer, an investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to financial instruments and/or to the provision of a financial service. It is not intended to be a final representation of the terms and conditions of any investment, security, other financial instrument or other product or service. The content of this document is intended only for persons who understand and are capable of assuming all risks involved. Further, this document is not intended to provide any financial, legal, accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in this regard. The information in this document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. You should seek your own professional advice (including tax advice) suitable to your particular circumstances prior to making any investment or if you are in doubt as to the information in this document. 

Performance results shown are net of applicable fees and expenses. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is no indicator of future performance. Investment products may be subject to investment risks, involving but not limited to, currency exchange and market risks, fluctuations in value, liquidity risk and, where applicable, possible loss of principal invested. Some funds may have high volatility owing to portfolio composition or the portfolio management techniques utilised or be subject to various other risk factors. Such risks are set out in the Prospectus and KIID/KID.

A copy of the English version of the prospectus of the Fund and the key investor information document relating to the Fund is available on www.newcapital.com and may also be obtained from EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited. Where required under national rules, the key investor information document/the key information document will also be available in the local language of the relevant EEA Member State. 

The information provided in this document is not the result of financial research conducted by EFGAM’s research department. Therefore, it does not constitute investment or independent research as defined in EU regulation (such as “MIFID II” or “MIFIR”) nor under the Swiss “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” issued by the Swiss Banking Association or any other equivalent local rules. Investors should carefully read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and review such documents prior to taking any investment decisions.  This information can be obtained on request and free of charge from your client relationship officer.

Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited is the appointed Management Company and is regulated by the CBI. The Manager is a private limited company incorporated in Ireland under the company registration number C123529 with its registered office at 4th Floor, 35 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin, D04 A4E0, Ireland.
 
Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no member of the EFG group represents or warrants its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. This document may contain personal opinions which do not necessarily reflect the position of any member of the EFG group. To the fullest extent permissible by law, no member of the EFG group shall be responsible for the consequences of any errors or omissions herein, or reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein, and each member of the EFG group expressly disclaims any liability, including (without limitation) liability for incidental or consequential damages, arising from the same or resulting from any action or inaction on the part of the recipient in reliance on this document.

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Comparisons to indexes or benchmarks in this material are being provided for illustrative purposes only and have limitations because indexes and benchmarks have material characteristics that may differ from the particular investment strategies that are being pursued by EFG and securities in which it invests.

The information and views expressed herein at the time of writing are subject to change at any time without notice and there is no obligation to update or remove outdated information.
 
Risks associated with debt instruments with loss-absorption features – the Fund/Note/Account may invest in debt instruments with loss-absorption features, for example, contingent convertible debt securities (“CoCos”), senior non-preferred debts and subordinated debts issued by financial institutions. These debt instruments are subject to greater risks when compared to traditional debt instruments as such instruments typically include terms and conditions which may result in them being partly or wholly written off, written down, or converted to ordinary shares of the issuer upon the occurrence of a pre-defined trigger event (e.g. when the issuer is near or at the point of non-viability or when the issuer’s capital ratio falls to a specified level). Such trigger events are likely to be outside of the issuer’s control and are complex and difficult to predict and can result in a significant or total reduction in the value of such instruments.
 
Country of origin of the collective investment scheme:  Ireland.  The information contained in this document is merely a brief summary of key aspects of the fund.

More complete information on the fund can be found in the relevant memorandum and articles of association, prospectus, key information document, the addenda, the supplements and the most recent audited annual report and the most recent semi-annual report. These documents constitute the sole binding basis for the purchase of fund units. Copies of these documents are available free of charge and may be obtained upon request from www.newcapital.com and also as follows:

Ireland: from the registered office of the Fund at 35 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin, Ireland

United Kingdom:  from the UK facilities agent, EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Park House, 116 Park Street, London W1K 6AF, United Kingdom

Switzerland: from the Swiss representative, CACEIS (Switzerland) SA, Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon 2 and the paying agent, EFG Bank SA, 24 Quai du Seujet, CH-1211, Geneva 2, Switzerland.

Italy: from the Italian paying agent, All funds Bank S.A.U., Milan Branch, Via Santa Margherita, 7 – 20121, Milan, Italy

Germany: from the German Facility Agent, FE fundinfo (Luxembourg) S.a.r.l. 6 Boulevard des Lumières, Belvaux 4369 Luxembourg

Austria, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden: from the European Facility Service provider, FE fundinfo with registered address 6 Boulevard des Lumières, Belvaux, 4369 Luxembourg

Cyprus: from the Cypriot Paying Agent Eurobank Cyprus Ltd, 41 Makariou Avenue, 1065, Nicosia, Cyprus

Greece: from the Greek Paying Agent, Eurobank S.A., 8 Othonos Street, 10557 Athens, Greece

A summary of investor rights associated with an investment in the Fund shall be available in English from www.newcapital.com.

Termination of marketing arrangements: Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited have the right to terminate the arrangements made for marketing the Fund in certain jurisdictions and to certain investors. In such circumstances, Shareholders in the affected EEA Member State will be notified of this decision and will be provided with the opportunity to redeem their shareholding in the Fund free of any charges or deductions for at least 30 working days from the date of such notification. 

European Union: Waystone Investment Management (IE) Limited is the European investment distributor and is authorized in Ireland as an investment firm under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive. Waystone Investment Management (IE) Limited acts as a distributor
in the European Union under reference number C1011 and Ireland. Waystone Investment Management (IE) Limited does not provide investment advice on an independent basis.

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Singapore: This document shall be construed as part of the information memorandum (the "Information Memorandum") for the Fund, which shall be deemed to include and incorporate this document and any other document, correspondence, communication or material sent or provided to eligible participants in relation to the Fund from time to time. Accordingly, this document must not be relied upon or construed on its own without reference to and as part of the Information Memorandum.

The Fund has not been authorised or recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), and the units in the Fund (the "Units") are not allowed to be offered to the retail public. Moreover, the Information Memorandum is not a prospectus as defined in the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore, as amended or modified from time to time (“SFA”), and statutory liability under the SFA in relation to the content of prospectuses would not apply. The Information Memorandum has not been and will not be registered as a prospectus with the MAS. Accordingly, the Information Memorandum, this document and any other document or material in connection with the offer or sale, or invitation for subscription or purchase, of the Units may not be circulated or distributed, nor may the Units be offered or sold, or be made the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public, any member of the public or any person in Singapore, other than under an exemption provided in the SFA for offers made (a) to an institutional investor (as defined in Section 4A of the SFA) pursuant to Section 304 of the SFA, (b) to a relevant person (as defined in Section 305(5) of the SFA), or any person pursuant to an offer referred to in Section 305(2) of the SFA, and in accordance with the conditions specified in Section 305 of the SFA, or (c) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with, the conditions of any other applicable provision of the SFA. The Units are classified as "capital markets products other than prescribed capital markets products" (as defined in the Securities and Futures (Capital Markets Products) Regulations 2018 and Specified Investment Products (as defined in MAS Notice SFA 04-N12: Notice on the Sale of Investment Products and MAS Notice FAA-N16: Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products).

Information for investors in Australia: 
For Professional, Institutional and Wholesale Investors Only. This document has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, a private limited company with registered number 7389736 and with its registered office address at Park House, Park Street, London W1K 6AP (telephone number +44 (0)20 7491 9111). EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is regulated and authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority No. 536771. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA Registration No. 536771) under the laws of the United Kingdom which differ from Australian laws.  This document is personnal and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, to any other person.
 ASIC Class Order CO 03/1099 EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited notifies you that it is relying on the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) Class Order CO 03/1099 (Class Order) exemption (as extended in operation by ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional Instrument 2016/396) for UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulated firms which exempts it from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Corporations Act) in respect of the financial services we provide to you. 

UK Regulatory Requirements 
The financial services that we provide to you are regulated by the FCA under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United Kingdom which are different to Australia. Consequently any offer or other documentation that you receive from us in the course of us providing financial services to you will be prepared in accordance with those laws and regulatory requirements. The UK regulatory requirements refer to legislation, rules enacted pursuant to the legislation and any other relevant policies or documents issued by the FCA.  Your Status as a Wholesale Client. In order that we may provide financial services to you, and for us to comply with the Class Order, you must be a 'wholesale client' within the meaning given by section 761G of the Corporations Act. Accordingly, by accepting any documentation from us prior to the commencement of or in the course of us providing financial services to you, you warrant to us that you are a ‘wholesale client’; agree to provide such information or evidence that we may request from time to time to confirm your status as a wholesale client; agree that we may cease providing financial services to you if you are no longer a wholesale client or do not provide us with information or evidence satisfactory to us to confirm your status as a wholesale client; 
and agree to notify us in writing within 5 business days if you cease to be a 'wholesale client' for the purposes of the financial services that we provide to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: FOR PUBLICATIONS WITH CONTENT RELATED TO FUNDS

Offering Documents 

Neither this document nor any document under which Interests in the New Capital UCITS Fund plc (the “Fund”) are offered is a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other formal disclosure document under the Corporations Act.  Interests in the Fund may not be offered, issued, sold or distributed in Australia other than by way of or pursuant to an offer or invitation that does not need disclosure to investors either under Part 7.9 or Part 6D.2 of the Corporations Act, whether by reason of the investor being a wholesale client (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act and applicable regulations) or otherwise. Nothing in this document nor any document under which interests in the Fund are offered constitutes an offer of interests in a financial product or financial product advice to a 'retail client' (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act and applicable regulations).

The issuer of the interests in the Fund relies on exemptions available under Australian law from the need to hold an AFSL for the provision of financial services to Australian wholesale clients. Note that as all investors must be wholesale clients, no cooling off rights are available in relation to an investment in the Fund.

Contact us:
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+44 (0)20 7491 9111
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