Insights & News - EFGAM New Capital

Macro

What Pythagoras' theorem can teach us about the Fed

Pythagoras’ theorem — which states that the square of the hypotenuse equals the sum of the squares of the other two sides in a right-angled triangle — is not a standard tool in monetary policy. However, it does offer a surprisingly useful way to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s performance, as EFG’s Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach explores in this Macro Flash Note.

10 Juni 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Insight

Trump 2.0 and the potential for China shock 2.0

Trump’s second term has seen a dramatic escalation in trade tensions with China, with the potential for significant and long-lasting changes to trade patterns. In this edition of InFocus, Economist Sam Jochim analyses changes in China’s trade patterns during Trump’s first term, the impacts of these changes on Southeast Asian economies and the potential for another ‘China shock’ in Trump’s second term.

09 Juni 2025

Macro

Data dependency does not mean ECB rates have bottomed

On 05 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. In contrast to the recent past, President Lagarde’s comments do not offer guidance on the central bank’s next moves. In this Macro Flash Note, Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the factors that could influence the ECB’s future monetary policy.

06 Juni 2025
Read time: 2 mins

Macro

Dollar declines and tariff tumult

Welcome to the June edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

06 Juni 2025
Read time: 10 mins

A changing world

Podcast - Tariff turmoil, Trump 2.0 and a big beautiful bill

Friend of the podcast Dan Clifton returns to Beyond the Benchmark to help make sense of the ongoing Trump tariff saga and his ‘big beautiful bill’. Trump’s economic trials and tribulations are also set against the backdrop of a radical shift in the way the US conducts foreign affairs, as signalled on his recent trip to Qatar in a speech which has been surprisingly overlooked by most.

05 Juni 2025

Macro

WTO's Global Trade Outlook: Trade momentum reverses amid tariff escalation

The World Trade Organization (WTO) downgraded the outlook for global trade in its April 2025 Global Trade Outlook, reflecting the changes in US trade policy and the spill over from rising policy uncertainty. In this Macro Flash Note, Samira Rahman looks at the key takeaways from the report.

05 Juni 2025
Read time: 3 mins

Mid-Year Outlook 2026